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Will Your Portfolio Fall to Pieces Due to Federal Income Tax Increases? 10.01.2021

Lots of talk. Lots of posturing. Lots of sound bites. But not a lot of action (so far, at least). A familiar refrain? It is, when it comes to our elected officials in Washington D.C.

washington gridlock Bipartisan Infrastructure Bill Summary

In today’s Trending Today newsletter, we are going to explore the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, the $3.5 trillion infrastructure plan details, and, perhaps most importantly to investors, the potential federal income tax increases that may occur if and when either, or both, of these massive bills become law.


Legislators are taking a two-step approach in their efforts to pass President Biden’s ambitious jobs and infrastructure program, some provisions being Republican-friendly, and some Democrat-friendly. This two-track plan to pass this legislation works as follows: Put the GOP-friendly items in a $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill that could pass on a bipartisan basis, and then put the rest in a much larger $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill that would attempt to pass on a party-line vote, via what is known as budget reconciliation, which only requires a simple majority to pass it.


The $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, known as the Infrastructure Investment and Jobs Act, already passed the Senate by a vote of 69-30 on August 10. Many people have asked: “What is the bipartisan infrastructure bill, and what’s in it?” Focusing on the traditional definition of infrastructure, the bill focuses on roads, bridges, rail, and water. It is truly a monumental measure, with an equally monumental 13 digit price tag!

What’s in the bipartisan infrastructure bill?

what is the bipartisan infrastructure bill

However, the bipartisan infrastructure bill cannot become law until it also passes the House of Representatives, and that is where things begin to become tricky.

Nancy Pelosi Federal Income Tax Increases

Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi promised that the House would vote on the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill yesterday, but that vote was again delayed. The problem? Pelosi faces pressure from progressive Democrats, who say they will not support the “skinny” $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill unless the much bigger $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill, focusing on human infrastructure and social spending such as climate change mitigation, increased child care funding, and health care expansions, also moves ahead.

We truly feel it is amazing that we live in a world where spending $1.2 trillion on a bipartisan infrastructure bill is considered “skinny,” but it is when compared to the $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill!

Financing such social programs as universal pre-kindergarten, extended childcare, and expansion of health insurance coverage provided under Obamacare, the $3.5 trillion infrastructure bill, known as the American Families Plan (AFP), it represents the largest expansion of federal spending since the New Deal. And, with this enormous price tag comes the concurrent federal income tax increases to fund it. Here are the potential “highlights”:

  • Federal income tax increases – the AFP will restore the 39.6% pre-Trump, pre-Tax Cuts and Jobs Act marginal ordinary income tax rate. This current marginal rate is 37%.
  • Multimillionaire excise tax – the AFP places a 3% excise tax on income in excess of $5 million
  • Higher corporate tax rates – the corporate tax rate is set to increase form 21% to 26.5%, with a new minimum tax of 16.5% on offshore earnings
  • Higher capital gains tax rates – the federal marginal capital gains tax rate for those with incomes higher than $400,000 will increase from 20% to 25%, and will be retroactive to September 13, 2021

And the less-likely but still possible proposals:

Additionally, the following indirect federal income tax increases are in the crosshairs:

  • Elimination of Roth IRA conversions for taxpayers filing jointly with incomes over $450,000, and for single taxpayers with incomes over $400,000
  • Elimination of “Backdoor” Roth IRA contributions, banned for ALL income levels
  • Mandatory taxable drawdowns of large IRAs – contributions to IRAs that have a total value of $10 million or more would be prohibited, IRAs and 401(k)s in excess of $10 million will have required minimum distributions of half of the amount over $10MM, and for retirement accounts over $20 million, everything over $20MM must be distributed immediately

Federal Income Tax Increases Explained

Still confused? Have more questions? Hungry for clear answers? Found below is a simple educational video we just produced, designed to break down the complicated topic of the $1.2 trillion bipartisan infrastructure bill, the $3.5 trillion infrastructure plan details, and the concurrent federal income tax increases that may occur, all specifically arranged in a digestible and easy-to-understand format.

Click HERE to watch the video!

Federal Income Tax Increases Explained

Be sure to also click the SUBSCRIBE button to follow

Towerpoint Wealth on YouTube!

Importantly, and regardless of how things shake out, at Towerpoint Wealth we sincerely believe three things:

  1. Taxes will be higher over the next few years, perhaps as early as January of 2022, and perhaps significantly for higher income earners
  2. It is very reasonable to assume that this infrastructure legislation, in one way, shape, or form, will become law, and that trillions of dollars will soon be spent by our Federal government
  3. The next three months represent the most important tax planning months in recent years, as potential federal income tax increases mentioned above could be effective as soon as 1/1/2022

These tax planning opportunities include:

  • Accelerate income into THIS YEAR, and defer tax deductions into future tax years, to leverage today’s low income tax rates and minimize tomorrow’s potential Federal income tax increases
  • Utilize a partial, or even full, Roth IRA conversion in 2021, for the same reason mentioned directly above
  • Evaluate gifting strategies, such as the utilization of a donor advised fund (DAF), to accelerate (or “bunch”) your charitable contributions to hurdle the standard deduction in 2021

Have a plan, and if you don’t, we encourage you to click HERE to message us and begin to discuss your circumstances further. With the high probability of federal income tax increases occurring in the near future, time is of the essence!

What’s Happening at TPW?

Our always-photogenic Director of Research and Analytics, Nathan Billigmeier, and his beautiful wife Jessica, post together prior to heading into the brand new Safe Credit Union Performing Arts Center in downtown Sacramento to see a stellar performance of Hamilton!

Nathan Billigmeier Director of Research and Analytics

Most of the Towerpoint Wealth family (and extended family!) had a fun day of golf two Monday’s ago, directly supporting the Rotary Club of Arden-Arcade and the Rotary Club of Granite Bay to raise resources and money for homelessness, at-risk youth, and local schools and parks.

It was quite the “Around the World” golf tournament, specifically the craft beer, jello shots, and marshmallow drive on the TPW-hosted 7th hole!

Graph of the Week

Are you a nocoiner, or do you HODL?

A compelling chart below suggests that cryptocurrency does not appear to be going away any time soon!

What do you think is going to happen with crypto? Click HERE to message us and let us know your thoughts!

Trending Today

As the 24/7 news cycle churns, twists, and turns, a number of trending and notable events have occurred over the past few weeks:

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely unsettled and complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

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Towerpoint Wealth Sacramento Independent Financial Advisor

– Joseph, Jonathan, Steve, Lori, Nathan, and Michelle

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No Outcome? No Surprise. No Problem!

We expected it to be this way, right? Historically, the market has always gotten a bit crazy both before, and after, the election:

Since Election Day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 has rallied 4%, and has enjoyed its best start to the month of November ever, up 7.4% in four days.

At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe there are a few reasons for this big jump:

  1. While investors do expect a fiscal stimulus package out of Washington D.C. in the near future, perhaps before January, the size of a deal reached in a divided Congress is likely to be much smaller than it would be under a Democratic-controlled Congress. However, sometimes bad news equals good news on Wall Street, and this had led investors to believe that more pressure will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) to pump more funds into the financial system, theoretically supporting stock prices. Just yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more stimulus is “absolutely essential” to economic recovery.
  2. Assuming Republicans hold the Senate, the likelihood of significant increases in both regulations and income taxes is significantly decreased.
  3. Interest rate and inflation expectations have recently dropped:
         Interest Rates       
Inflation

Additionally, as the Chart of the Week towards the bottom of this newsletter indicates, gridlock has historically been good for the equity markets. And while ballots are still being tallied, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania remaining in focus, it does appear that Joe Biden is on the brink of victory, and that we are much closer to having a clear winner, possibly by tomorrow or Sunday. The betting markets on the Presidency sure seem to agree:

There are many reasons for us here at Towerpoint Wealth to be paying close attention to events out of our control, but no reason to be reactionary to any of them. In addition to the recent interest rate and inflation-expectation adjustments, some of the other post-election, split-Congress items bearing scrutiny include:

  1. Renewed weakness in the financial sector
  2. Growth stocks outperforming value stocks
  3. Industrial and materials sector stocks lagging
  4. The volatility of the U.S. dollar
  5. Strengthening emerging market stocks
  6. Continued strengthening of technology sector stocks
  7. Potential weakness in tax-free municipal bond prices
  8. Weakness in healthcare sector stocks
  9. Weakness in renewable energy stocks


All of these moving parts and variables can make it tempting to consider second-guessing your investment strategy and philosophy. The constant struggle between the desire for growth and protection is natural, and the goal of managing a well-diversified portfolio is to be prepared for any market environment or political change.


Ultimately, when we put aside all of those “uncontrollables,” we keep the following graph in focus (hopefully the trend is an obvious one):

What’s Happening at TPW?

The Towerpoint Wealth family enjoyed an afternoon of teambuilding and camaraderie on the Sacramento river earlier this week, taking a quick voyage on the Sacramento Brew Boat up and back to the iconic Virgin Sturgeon restaurant for lunch.

While on their adventure, they also helped our newest family member and wealth advisor, Matt Regan, celebrate his birthday!

TPW Service Highlight – Morningstar Portfolio “Instant X-Ray”

Often enough, clients ask us what stocks they have exposure to within the various mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) that comprise their portfolio. We now have a sophisticated tool available to us that not only does a deep-dive in evaluating your specific asset allocation and sector weightings, but also the actual individual underlying holdings you have exposure to.

Think you are properly diversified? There is only one way to find out for sure – ask us to run a Morningstar portfolio Instant X-Ray report, and we will dissect your portfolio to uncover concentrated positions, areas of unexpected overlap, and provide detailed insights into your portfolio’s diversification, illuminating what is truly driving your portfolio’s risk and performance.

Chart of the Week

The odds right now seem to favor a Biden presidency, a Republican Senate, and a Democrat House. The chart below, from LPL Financial Research, shows how a split Congress has been historically good for the stock market.

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

CLICK Here To Download Towerpoint Wealth PDFs

– Steve, Jonathan, Lori, Joseph, Raquel, Nathan, and Matt

Towerpoint Wealth Our Team Sacramento Wealth