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No Outcome? No Surprise. No Problem!

We expected it to be this way, right? Historically, the market has always gotten a bit crazy both before, and after, the election:

Since Election Day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 has rallied 4%, and has enjoyed its best start to the month of November ever, up 7.4% in four days.

At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe there are a few reasons for this big jump:

  1. While investors do expect a fiscal stimulus package out of Washington D.C. in the near future, perhaps before January, the size of a deal reached in a divided Congress is likely to be much smaller than it would be under a Democratic-controlled Congress. However, sometimes bad news equals good news on Wall Street, and this had led investors to believe that more pressure will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) to pump more funds into the financial system, theoretically supporting stock prices. Just yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more stimulus is “absolutely essential” to economic recovery.
  2. Assuming Republicans hold the Senate, the likelihood of significant increases in both regulations and income taxes is significantly decreased.
  3. Interest rate and inflation expectations have recently dropped:
         Interest Rates       
Inflation

Additionally, as the Chart of the Week towards the bottom of this newsletter indicates, gridlock has historically been good for the equity markets. And while ballots are still being tallied, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania remaining in focus, it does appear that Joe Biden is on the brink of victory, and that we are much closer to having a clear winner, possibly by tomorrow or Sunday. The betting markets on the Presidency sure seem to agree:

There are many reasons for us here at Towerpoint Wealth to be paying close attention to events out of our control, but no reason to be reactionary to any of them. In addition to the recent interest rate and inflation-expectation adjustments, some of the other post-election, split-Congress items bearing scrutiny include:

  1. Renewed weakness in the financial sector
  2. Growth stocks outperforming value stocks
  3. Industrial and materials sector stocks lagging
  4. The volatility of the U.S. dollar
  5. Strengthening emerging market stocks
  6. Continued strengthening of technology sector stocks
  7. Potential weakness in tax-free municipal bond prices
  8. Weakness in healthcare sector stocks
  9. Weakness in renewable energy stocks


All of these moving parts and variables can make it tempting to consider second-guessing your investment strategy and philosophy. The constant struggle between the desire for growth and protection is natural, and the goal of managing a well-diversified portfolio is to be prepared for any market environment or political change.


Ultimately, when we put aside all of those “uncontrollables,” we keep the following graph in focus (hopefully the trend is an obvious one):

What’s Happening at TPW?

The Towerpoint Wealth family enjoyed an afternoon of teambuilding and camaraderie on the Sacramento river earlier this week, taking a quick voyage on the Sacramento Brew Boat up and back to the iconic Virgin Sturgeon restaurant for lunch.

While on their adventure, they also helped our newest family member and wealth advisor, Matt Regan, celebrate his birthday!

TPW Service Highlight – Morningstar Portfolio “Instant X-Ray”

Often enough, clients ask us what stocks they have exposure to within the various mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) that comprise their portfolio. We now have a sophisticated tool available to us that not only does a deep-dive in evaluating your specific asset allocation and sector weightings, but also the actual individual underlying holdings you have exposure to.

Think you are properly diversified? There is only one way to find out for sure – ask us to run a Morningstar portfolio Instant X-Ray report, and we will dissect your portfolio to uncover concentrated positions, areas of unexpected overlap, and provide detailed insights into your portfolio’s diversification, illuminating what is truly driving your portfolio’s risk and performance.

Chart of the Week

The odds right now seem to favor a Biden presidency, a Republican Senate, and a Democrat House. The chart below, from LPL Financial Research, shows how a split Congress has been historically good for the stock market.

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

CLICK Here To Download Towerpoint Wealth PDFs

– Steve, Jonathan, Lori, Joseph, Raquel, Nathan, and Matt

Towerpoint Wealth Our Team Sacramento Wealth
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The Donald vs. Joe – Which Way Will Your Income Taxes Go?

As of yesterday, more than 17 million people across 44 states and Washington D.C. have already voted. It is projected that a record-setting 150 million people will vote in 2020’s presidential election, representing approximately 65% of eligible voters, which would be the highest rate since 1908! As a country, we are truly rocking the vote this year!

For many voters, considering and sorting through all of the complicated issues can sometimes be a confusing and overwhelming responsibility:

As is typically the case, income taxes rank highly on the list of topics important to voters. According to a mid-September Gallup poll, 61% of voters said that the presidential candidates’ position on income taxes was either an extremely important or very important influence on who they vote for.

Understanding the upcoming election will be pivotal when it comes to tax policy, as well as how divergent the two candidates are regarding virtually every single issue, the dichotomy between Trump and Biden in tax policy and philosophy should come as no surprise. Both candidates have a plan, each with far-reaching consequences, for the following:

  • Individual tax rates
  • Capital gains and dividends
  • Individual tax credits and deductions
  • Education tax credits
  • Corporate taxes
  • Payroll taxes
  • Estate taxes

Hungry for more information?

  1. Click HERE for a concise “low down” on each candidate’s position on the major tax issues, courtesy of Grant Thornton.
  2. Click HERE For a fresh (filmed just this morning) take from Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley, on what Biden and Trump’s tax policy proposals mean for investors, the markets, and the election.

What seems to be clear is that who wins in November could very well spell the difference between cementing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 as a permanentshift in U.S. tax policy, or instead, reversing major portions of this three-year-old legislation in favor of more progressive tax policies.

Either way, let’s not forget that there almost assuredly will be a substantial difference between what is promised on the campaign trail and what actually passes into law!

What’s Happening at TPW?


Lori and Raquel. On Tuesday. Together. With Bob Ross (on the right)! That’s all. 

Our President, Joseph Eschleman (and his wife, Megan Eschleman), and our Partner, Wealth Advisor, Jonathan LaTurner (and his fiancée, Katie McDonald), escaped to Oregon to do some wine tasting in the Willamette Valley this past weekend!

TPW Service Highlight – Tax Minimization Planning

Keeping with the theme of today’s newsletter, we at Towerpoint Wealth believe our energy is best spent helping our clients plan for things we have some control over, while being aware of, but not reactionary to, things we do not. And while paying taxes is as exacting and constant today as it was the day Benjamin Franklin penned his famous Death and Taxes quote in 1789, that doesn’t mean it can’t be planned around and minimized.

We are fortunate to have two team members who are licensed CPAs here at TPW, our Director of Tax and Financial Planning, Steve Pitchford, and our new Wealth Advisor, Matt Regan. Fortunately for us (and our clients!), both Steve and Matt are extremely well-versed and experienced in helping TPW clients reduce the income tax “drag” on their net worth and investments, specifically monitoring and focusing on the following areas:

  • Tax efficient investing
  • Tax loss harvesting
  • Tax legislation updates and changes
  • Asset/investment account drawdown
  • Account withdrawal tax optimization
  • Charitable trust planning
  • Charitable giving planning and analysis
  • Income tax credit and deduction analysis
  • Direct coordination and planning with your CPA/tax advisor
  • Tax return analysis
Steve Pitchford, CPA, CFP®
Director of Tax and Financial Planning
(916) 405-9166
spitchford@towerpointwealth.com
Matt Regan, CPA
Wealth Advisor
(916) 405-9164
mregan@towerpointwealth.com

Graph of the Week

Will it be a landslide, or will it be close? Will it be contested, or will it go smoothly? Reply to this email and let us know what you think!

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Steve, Jonathan, Lori, Joseph, Raquel, Nathan, and Matt