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Are You REALLY a Long Term Investor?? 10.26.2021

Successful Long Term Investing Strategies for Successful Long Term

Investors

Are you really a long term investor? Or do you just say you are a long term investor but behave more like a trader or a gambler, and fail to apply long term investment strategies to your portfolio? Watch our President, Joseph F. Eschleman, CIMA®, discuss exactly what it takes to truly act and behave like a long term investor, and what specific long term investing strategies and philosophies need to be developed and internalized to be a successful long term investor. Trying to successfully build, and protect, your wealth and “nest egg?” Watch this video to listen to Joseph outline seven key long term investing strategies and philosophies, as well as the exact emotional and behavioral characteristics needed to be a successful long term investor.

In this video, you can expect me to outline three key ingredients that, here at Towerpoint Wealth, we believe are *crucial* to being a SUCCESSFUL long term investor, and seven specific KEY long term investing strategies and principals that we believe NEED to be followed to successfully build, and protect, your wealth. You do want to successfully build and protect your wealth, don’t you?? Well then let’s get started!

SAYING you are a long term investor is easy; however, BEHAVING like a long-term investor is much more difficult. Throughout history, human behavior (specifically, fear and greed) has regularly gotten in the way of CONSISTENTLY following the long term investing strategies I am about to outline.

Or, put differently, as the great boxer Mike Tyson said, “Everybody has a plan until they get punched in the face.”

Mike Tyson

When the markets, economy, and politics are relatively “normal,” investing seems easy. However, when things get crazy, volatile, unbelievable, explosive, unpredictable, turbulent, harrowing, or unsettling, it becomes much more difficult to tolerate, endure, and absorb a major body blow to your “nest egg.”

Watching your money SHRINK can be a very emotional and traumatizing experience. And while there is no perfect recipe for becoming a successful long term investor, at Towerpoint Wealth we believe doing so all starts with three basic ingredients:

  1. Consistent objectivity
  2. Measured behavior
  3. Disciplined thinking and execution

In addition to the inherently emotional nature of money, there are a myriad of uncontrollable variables populating the external environment we live in that makes it quite difficult to enjoy the benefits of being long term investor: The movements of the stock market. The vicissitudes of the US and global economy. The fickle nature of the political winds. Increases and declines in interest rates, income taxes, and inflation. These are just a few examples from a very lengthy list of items that are OUT OF OUR CONTROL. And while it is human nature for us to think (even to outright believe) that we have some control over many of these things, the truth is, if we want to truly be a successful long term investor, we must recognize and accept the things we do not control.

At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe that the most successful long-term investors and wealth-creators have a somewhat-unique capability, a skill, that allows them to maintain appropriate perspective, to exhibit a high degree of humility, and to be laser-focused on the bigger picture. Fortunately, this IS a skill that can be coached, cultivated, and learned, and is something that we have a relatively high degree of control over.

Investment Strategy

But let’s pause, make this more tangible, and highlight seven key long term investing strategies and principles that, at Towerpoint Wealth, we believe are necessary to be a successful long erm investor:

  1. Be humble, be aware of, and accept, things that are out of your control
  2. Keep your emotions in check, and be acutely self-aware of the fear and greed that we may feel when considering our finances and investments, especially during periods of extremes
  3. Plan to live a LONG life, which we actually do have some control over!
  4. Einstein was right: The power of compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays it.
  5. Volatility should be expected, embraced, and taken advantage of, not feared nor averted
  6. Unless you have the unique ability to consistently AND accurately predict the future, stay properly invested and diversified, REGARDLESS of what you believe may happen in the market and in the economy
  7. Have a plan and a strategy, and be disciplined in sticking to it, regardless of the things you have no control over

In opining about what we believe it takes to be a successful long-term investor, we would be remiss if we did not directly integrate Warren Buffett’s (aka the “Oracle of Omaha”) wisdom on this subject into this video. Warren said it best:

Investment Strategy

Someone is sitting in the shade today because someone planted a tree a long time ago.

Do you have a plan to properly manage and coordinate all of your financial affairs, and a strategy to be a successful long term investor by growing and protecting your wealth and investment portfolio, even during turbulent times?

If so, are you being disciplined in consistently following it? If you have concerns, or simply would like to discuss how you can apply the long-term investment principles discussed above, we welcome having a conversation with you. Click HERE to message us, as we regularly have no-strings-attached conversations about these issues, and are happy to be an objective resource for you as you begin to consider your personal and financial circumstances further.

At Towerpoint Wealth, and UNLIIKE advisors at the major Wall Street firms, we are a fiduciary to YOU, and have a legal obligation to act in your best interests 100% of the time. If you have concerns, or simply would like to discuss how you can apply the long term investing strategies and philosophies I’ve discussed today, we welcome beginning to get to know you, and to have you get to know us. [SMILE} So let’s talk! Message us in the comments section, call us at 916-405-9150, or email us at info@towerpointwealth.com, to discuss your circumstances further.

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No No, I Really AM a Long-Term Investor! 10.15.2021

“I’m definitely a long-term investor.”

“I don’t get worried about the negative news headlines.”

“Declines happen – I get it.”

We have heard these lines uttered by the most well-intentioned and intelligent investors time and time again. Sometimes, they hold true to their word. Sometimes, the polar opposite. Saying you are a long-term investor is easy; behaving like a long-term investor is much more difficult, as this is clearly easier said than done. 

Put differently, as the great boxer Mike Tyson said: 

Mike Tyson

When things are relatively “normal,” investing seems easy. However, when things get (pick your favorite adjective): crazy, volatile, unbelievable, explosive, unpredictable, turbulent, harrowing, and/or unsettling, it becomes much more difficult to tolerate, endure, and absorb a major body blow to your “nest egg” (read: a consequential drop in value). Watching your money SHRINK can be a very emotional and traumatizing experience. And while there is no perfect recipe for becoming a successful long-term investor, at Towerpoint Wealth we believe it all starts with three basic ingredients: 

  1. Consistent objectivity
  2. Measured behavior
  3. Disciplined thinking and execution

In addition to the inherently emotional nature of money, there are a myriad of uncontrollable variables populating the external environment we live in: The movements of the stock market. The vicissitudes of the US and global economy. The fickle nature of the political winds. Increases and declines in interest rates, income taxes, and inflation. Just a few examples from a very lengthy list of items that are out of our control. And while it is human nature for us to think (even to outright believe) that we have some control over many of these things, the truth is, if we want to truly be a successful long-term investor, we must recognize and accept the things we do not control.

At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe that the most successful long-term investors and wealth-creators have a somewhat-unique capability, a skill, that allows them to maintain appropriate perspective, to exhibit a high degree of humility, and to be laser-focused on the bigger picture. Fortunately, this is a skill that can be coached, cultivated, and learned, and is something that we have a relatively high degree of control over.

Long-Term Investor

Investment Strategy

Let’s make this more tangible – below are seven key principles that, at Towerpoint Wealth, we believe are necessary to be a successful long-term investor:

  1. Be humble, be aware of, and accept, things that are out of your control
  2. Keep your emotions in check, and be acutely self-aware of the fear and greed that we may feel when considering our finances and investments, especially in periods of extremes
  3. Plan to live a long life, which we do have some control over!
  4. Einstein was right: The power of compound interest is the eighth wonder of the world. He who understands it, earns it; he who doesn’t, pays
  5. Volatility should be expected, embraced, and taken advantage of, not feared nor averted
  6. Unless you have the unique ability to consistently AND accurately predict the futurestay properly invested and diversified, regardless of what you believe may happen in the market and in the economy
  7. Have a plan and a strategy, and be disciplined in sticking to it, regardless of the things you have no control over
Investment Strategy

In opining about what we believe it takes to be a successful long-term investor, we would be remiss if we did not directly integrate Warren Buffett’s (aka the “Oracle of Omaha”) wisdom on this subject into this newsletter. Please click below to watch an excellent YouTube video, featuring a 2016 CNBC interview of Warren, where he outlines his FIVE best tips for successful long-term investors:

Do you have a plan to properly manage and coordinate all of your financial affairs and a strategy to grow and protect your wealth and investment portfolio, even during turbulent times?

If so, are you being disciplined in consistently following it? If you have concerns, or simply would like to discuss how you can apply the long-term investment principles discussed above, we welcome having a conversation with you. Click HERE to message us, as we regularly have no-strings-attached conversations about these issues, and are happy to be an objective resource for you as you begin to consider your personal and financial circumstances further.

What’s Happening at TPW?

Nathan P. Billigmeier Director of Research and Analytics

Our Director of Research and Analytics, Nathan Billigmeier, took last Friday off to spend time in Wheatland, CA at Bishop’s Pumpkin Farm with his two boys, Ethan and Grayson, specifically helping Grayson celebrate his 2nd birthday!

Philly cheesesteak

Our President, Joseph Eschleman, devouring a Philly cheesesteak (the only way a cheesesteak should be ordered, a “wiz, wit”) before jumping on a flight back to Sacramento earlier this month. Fuhgeddaboudit if you think you will find a better cheesesteak than Pat’s!

Graph of the Week

Yikes – inflation is at a 13 year high!

If you have any exposure to bonds in your portfolio, we strongly feel that it is time to take a hard look at:

How you are allocated within bonds

Your exposure to interest rate fluctuations (specifically, to rates going UP) due to inflation

Whether the risk you are taking is appropriate for your set of unique personal and financial circumstances

At Towerpoint Wealth, we have been successfully modeling what the value of a client’s portfolio would look like if interest rates INCREASE by ½, 1, or even 1 ½% over the next year or two. Message us by clicking HERE if you would like this custom analysis done for you.

Inflation Hits 2021

Cartoon of the Week

Issues with global supply chains will impact the holiday season…

Cartoon long term investor

As the 24/7 news cycle churns, twists, and turns, a number of trending and notable events have occurred over the past few weeks:

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely unsettled and complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

Click here to Download

– Joseph, Jonathan, Steve, Lori, Nathan, and Michelle

We love social media, and are always actively growing our social media community!

Long Term Investing Tips

Twenty Tips for No-Nonsense Investing

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Will Today’s Inflation Lead to Your Portfolio’s Devastation? 08.13.2021

Have you tried to rent a car lately?

Car Rental Rates Inflation This Year

Inflation Chart 2021

Go out to eat?

Going Out To Eat Inflation Chart 2021

Inflation Chart This Year

Take an Uber or Lyft?

Taking An Uber Inflation Chart 2021

As our economy continues to open up after massive lockdowns, there is no question we are feeling the effects of inflation.

Now at a 13 year high, the overall measure of CPI for the month of July matched the highest reading of headline CPI since 2008 – an estimated rise of 5.4% over last year!

What does inflation mean? Is inflation good or bad?

How can inflation affect interest rates? All important questions, especially in the current environment of rising prices that we find ourselves in.

Opinion remains divided on whether consumer and producer price inflation rates will be “transitory” or “enduring” in the months ahead, and at Towerpoint Wealth, we believe the jury is still out in terms of arriving at a definitive conclusion. Putting aside our skepticism about the ability of experts to accurately predict the future, a late June, 2021 survey of 52 economists found that 70% estimated the likelihood of inflation exceeding 3% in 2022 to be “somewhat unlikely” or “very unlikely.”

Economists expect Fed To Keep Inflation Under Control

The answers to the questions “What does inflation mean?” and “Is inflation good or bad” can be succinctly summarized like this:

  1. Inflation erodes purchasing power, as it represents a decrease in the purchasing power of a currency due to a rise in prices
  2. Inflation encourages spending and investing, as people buy and invest now, rather than later
  3. Inflation raises the cost of borrowing, as interest rates tend to increase when inflation occurs (good for savers, bad for borrowers)
  4. Inflation reduces unemployment, as unemployment falls, employers are forced to pay more for workers, and as wages rise, consumers tend to spend more
  5. Inflation increases growth, as consumers and businesses have an incentive to spend and invest today, rather than tomorrow, when prices are assumedly higher

Before the pandemic, inflation had been in a secular decline since the 1970’s:

Secular Decline Inflation Inflation Good Or Bad

Clearly 2021 has been different, and at least for the time being, this secular decline is over. Understanding that inflation is an important force that can dictate the performance and stability of an economy, we have our fingers crossed that the “slow and steady” inflationary environment of the past three decades returns, subsequent to our economy continuing to normalize after the roller coaster it has been on since March of last year.

What’s Happening at TPW?

Our Client Service Specialist, Michelle Venezia, moved from crabbing to clubbing while on her Norwegian Cruise Line cruise through Alaskan waters earlier this month, with Ketchikan being the port of call!


You look great in both photos Michelle, glad to see you having so much fun on your vacation!

Michelle Norwegian Cruise Line Towerpoint Wealth
Michelle Norwegian Cruise Line Towerpoint Wealth

Alaska has definitely been the theme at Towerpoint Wealth, as our Director of Tax and Financial Planning, Steve Pitchford, went on an epic adventure with his partner, Katie, touring and hiking through Denali National Park and Preserve late last month!

Alaska Trip Director of Tax and Financial Planning Steve Pitchford Fun
Alaska Trip Director of Tax and Financial Planning Steve Pitchford & Katie Fun

Illustrations/Graphs of the Week

Think long term. Patience pays…

Patience With Inflation This Year What Inflation Means

Broken record – think long term – patience pays! How to Build Wealth

How To Build Wealth Towerpoint Sacramento Financial Advisor

Trending Today

As the 24/7 news cycle churns, twists, and turns, there have been a number of trending and notable events that have occurred over the past few weeks:

Click here to Download

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely unsettled and complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

Joseph, Jonathan, Steve, Lori, Nathan, and Michelle

Towerpoint Wealth Sacramento Independent Financial Advisor
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Trading vs. Investing 04.15.2021

Trading vs. Investing | These two terms Trading vs. Investing are often used interchangeably by many, understanding the goal of both is to generate profit in the stock market. However, they represent two very different philosophies in how you approach the market. 

Oftentimes when we watch movies and TV shows about the stock market, we see a Gordon Gekko-type of character, quickly buying and selling stocks, making the big bucks, and living an opulent life. They make trading look seductive. But, as you would expect, it can be a very risky enterprise.

Investing, on the other hand, involves strategically buying an asset you expect to rise in value over time, independent of any shorter-term movements in its price. Investors usually have a longer-term time horizon, and look to build wealth through *discipline*, gradual appreciation, and compound interest.

Watch this video from our Sacramento Wealth Advisor and CPA, Matt Regan, to learn the pros and cons of both investment philosophies and how you can incorporate both approaches into your own portfolio.  

Sacramento Certified Public Account, Matt Regan | mregan@towerpointwealth.com
Sacramento Wealth Advisor | Sacramento Financial Advisor | Trading vs. Investing

Trading vs investing | Two terms that are often used interchangeably by many, understanding the goal of both is to generate profit in the stock market. However, they represent two very different philosophies in how you approach the market. Depending on your level of market expertise, time availability, risk tolerance, emotional discipline, and goals, one of these approaches may be better for you than the other.

Hi Everyone, Matt Regan here from Towerpoint Wealth, and today I am going to discuss the differences between Trading vs investing, and why you would want to incorporate either of these philosophies into your investment strategy.

Oftentimes when we watch movies and TV shows about the stock market, we see a Gordon Gekko-type of character, quickly buying and selling stocks, making the big bucks, and living an opulent life. They make trading look seductive. Trading focuses on timing market moves and buying and selling individual stocks within a short period of time to generate quick profits. As you would expect, it can be a very risky enterprise. If a trade doesn’t go your way, you can lose a lot of money in a very short period of time. The costs of short-term trading are also greater. The more trades you execute, the more fees or commissions you might have to pay. Also, any quick gains that are made will be subject to higher ordinary income tax rates, and not the lower long-term capital gains tax rate. These two costs can be a huge drag on overall portfolio growth.

Investing, on the other hand, involves strategically buying an asset you expect to rise in value over time, independent of any shorter-term movements in its price. Investors usually have a longer-term time horizon, and look to build wealth through discipline, gradual appreciation, and compound interest. Investors typically own a well-diversified portfolio of investments, and only sparingly make major adjustments. Since investors are not constantly buying and selling, the overall costs and drag on the portfolio oftentimes is lower as well. So, while investing may not be fast paced, nor exciting, at Towerpoint Wealth, we feel it is the best way to gain the highest return at the lowest risk.

So, there you have it. Both ways of approaching the stock market have their pros and cons. If you’re comfortable with the risks, trading can be an exciting way to earn quick profits. If reducing risk and taking a more methodical approach to building your net worth are your main goals, then you’ll want to stick with a longer-term investment philosophy. Regardless, these philosophies don’t need to be mutually exclusive, and if you are interested in learning how you can incorporate both approaches into your own portfolio, feel free to contact me on LinkedIn, Facebook, or Instagram for some expert guidance and to have a no-strings-attached conversation. Thanks, and have a great day.

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Coinbase | Largest cryptocurrency exchange 04.15.2021

Today, Coinbase Global Inc., the largest cryptocurrency exchange platform in the U.S., went public on the Nasdaq exchange via a direct listing under the ticker symbol COIN. Coinbase is the world’s third largest digital asset exchange, and by far the most well-known cryptocurrency exchange platform in the US. COIN provides a service that helps its users easily secure direct ownership of cryptocurrencies.

For years, cryptocurrency has faced skepticism and resistance, but the floodgates appear to continue to be opening as banks and businesses have begun accepting Bitcoin for transactions or investing heavily into it with corporate cash. Many people see Coinbase’s arrival on the stock market as further validation for cryptocurrencies, and a great PR opportunity for the entire crypto industry.

Watch this video from our Sacramento Wealth Advisor and CPA, Matt Regan, to learn more about Coinbase, what it means for the cryptocurrency world, and what it means for individual investors like you and me.

Sacramento Certified Public Account, Matt Regan
Sacramento Wealth Advisor | Sacramento Financial Advisor

Over the past year, Bitcoin has been on a tear. On April 13, 2020, a single coin was valued at $6,879. At the close of yesterday, a single coin was valued at $63,291, an 820% increase in value in just one year, just remarkable. This is clear evidence of just how much cryptocurrencies have continued to be viewed as a legitimate asset. And cryptos received another boost today, as Coinbase, the largest cryptocurrency exchange platform in the U.S., went public on the Nasdaq exchange via a direct listing, under the ticker symbol COIN.

Hi Everyone, Matt Regan here from Towerpoint Wealth, and today I am going discuss what Coinbase is, what it means for the cryptocurrency world, and what it means for individual investors like you and me.

Coinbase is the world’s third largest digital asset exchange, and by far the most well-known cryptocurrency exchange platform in the US. “COIN” provides a service that helps its users easily secure direct ownership of cryptocurrencies. About 90% of Coinbase’s revenue is currently derived directly from retail trading, with most if that here in the U.S., and centered primarily on the two largest cryptocurrencies: 1. Bitcoin and 2. Ethereum. The benefits to owning shares of Coinbase? Revenue and profit increase as interest and demand in cryptocurrencies continues to increase. The risks? ONE: The possibility for stricter governmental regulations, and TWO: Business and financial conditions for Coinbase could be negatively affected if demand for Bitcoin and Ethereum declines and is not replaced by new demand for other crypto assets.

For years, cryptocurrency has faced skepticism and resistance. Just this past February, Warren Buffett said “Cryptocurrencies basically have no value, and they don’t produce anything. I don’t have any cryptocurrency and I never will.” But at least for now, Warren appears to be wrong, as the floodgates appear to continue to be opening. Banks, credit card companies, professional sports franchises, and even automakers have begun to make moves into the space, either by accepting Bitcoin for transactions, or by investing heavily into it with corporate cash. Many people see Coinbase’s arrival on the stock market as further validation for cryptocurrencies, and a great PR opportunity for the entire crypto industry.

As cryptos become more mainstream, we feel confident that it doesn’t mean volatility will decrease. Just like mainstream markets, news developments and speculation fuel price swings. Crypto markets are less liquid than traditional financial markets, so this heightened volatility and a lack of liquidity can create a dangerous combination, as oftentimes they both feed off of each other. As a result, it is very important investors have a long-term investment strategy and the ability to control their financial emotions during these expected wild fluctuations. If you are interested in discussing how cryptocurrencies can fit into your own financial plan, contact me, Matt Regan, on LinkedIn, Facebook, or Instagram. Thanks, and have a great day.

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Rental Passive Activity Losses

Do you invest in #rentalrealestate? Are you considering doing so? You have heard about the potential #taxdeductions and benefits, right? Not so fast!

Watch this quick video from our Wealth Advisor, Matt Regan, to learn more about the passive activity loss (PAL) rules associated with owning rental real estate, and message us with any questions that are on your mind.

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Coffee At Home

Investing early and making intelligent incremental monetary decisions usually leads to BIG THINGS, it just takes time and discipline.

Click below and take 60 seconds to watch Matt Regan, CPA, MBT – Wealth Advisor‘s most recent OneMinuteTaxTip video to learn how a simple change in your financial lifestyle, such as making coffee at home, can end up having a huge impact on your longer-term networth and your ability to #retire when you want to!

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Will Who We Elect Make the Market Correct

It’s right around the corner, and it isn’t going to be pretty, so let’s discuss the election’s impact on the stock market now and get it out of the way.

For a good part of this calendar year, we have counseled you that it is prudent to give advance thought to the range of potential economic, regulatory, taxation, spending, budget deficit, societal, and financial market implications of the national election results, depending on whether Republicans or Democrats win one or more of the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate

After Labor Day, the campaign is likely to reflect increased amounts of political vociferousness, perhaps some degree of vehemence, and even apportionments of vitriol (we hope and pray not too much), with the potential to cause meaningful shorter-term shifts in financial asset prices. That is precisely why we recommend forming beforehand, and sticking to, a well-reasoned and disciplined asset allocation plan and investment strategy tailored to your personal and financial circumstances, time horizon, objectives, and temperament.

November 2020: The 59th Quadrennial Presidential Election

September, October, and then, the Election: With the VIX volatility index (see the Graph of the Week below) having risen an average of four points ahead of each of the last seven presidential elections since this measure was created, important issues to consider in the upcoming weeks ahead include:

  • How clearly (and energetically) each political party’s convention message was received, perceived by, and responded to by their respective loyal voter bases;
  • The nation’s reactions to the anticipated three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate;
  • Assessments of the strength of party identification among various segments of the voting population, as well as in the composition of the overall electorate; at the same time, taking into account the ability of each ticket to generate serious backing from less-supportive voter populations; 
  • Which candidate voters (considering demographic attributes, where they live, how they classify themselves on the political spectrum, and other characteristics) think can better confront America’s broad challenges, including the coronavirus pandemic, the economy, social issues, and pressing global concerns;  
  • The effectiveness of voting procedures, trust in mail-in balloting, the degree of putative social media and foreign-based election interference, actual voter participation, and the perceived veracity and legitimacy of the results; and 
  • The potential consequences of prolonged uncertainty associated with a contested election (should it occur) for social order and the financial markets.

Some Implications of Potential Scenarios

Roughly one in five workers are currently receiving jobless benefits, and early expectations of a V-shaped recovery have been hindered by renewed coronavirus outbreaks. Regardless of who wins the 2020 election and in what manner, financial asset valuations appear to be reflecting expectations that whenever the coronavirus pandemic ends, some degree of economic acceleration is likely to take place in the U.S.

As we have counseled for some time, it is important to devote thought and attention to the taxation, regulatory, economic, asset allocation, and investment strategy implications of the three leading potential electoral outcomes outlined below (while noting that both political parties have expressed interest in promoting the development of generic drugs, lowering drug prices, and containing healthcare costs; and the two parties have also been focusing on antitrust, platform liability, and privacy issues relating to many of America’s biggest technology enterprises):

  1. If President Trump is re-elected and wins the White House, Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans keep control of the Senate, such an outcome would likely favor securities in the following sectors: technology, defense, finance, healthcare, and energy, while potentially putting pressure on sectors and companies that could be harmed by further deterioration in  U.S-China relations;
  2. If Vice President Biden wins the White House, Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans keep control of the Senate, such an outcome would likely favor companies and sectors that would be deemed to have thereby avoided increased taxes and a heavier regulatory burden;
  3. If Vice President Biden wins the White House, Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives, and Democrats take control of the Senate(sometimes referred to in the media as a “blue wave”), such results would substantially raise the odds of higher taxes. Offsets to the latter outcome could come in the form of substantial additional spending on infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Securities in the following sectors, among others, are perceived to be disadvantaged by a “blue wave” Democratic sweep: defense, healthcare, financials (via increased regulation) and energy (with expectations of restricting fracking and limiting drilling on federal lands in Texas/New Mexico’s Delaware Basin and Southeast Montana/Northeast Wyoming’s Powder River Basin), while giving a lift to sectors and companies that could be helped by improving U.S-China relations.

The Pre- and Post-Election Tax and Spending Outlook

As shown in the panel below, the current taxation and spending policy positions of Vice President Biden contain numerous base-broadening elements that increase taxes by approximately $4 trillion, while increasing spending to the tune of approximately $6 trillion in areas including healthcare, infrastructure, education, energy research, and other initiatives.

Released on Wednesday, July 9, the 110-page report of the Unity Task Forces (created and staffed by individuals designated by Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders) contains a detailed set of policy recommendations in six domestic policy areas: 

  1. Health care (while not supporting Medicare for All, the report proposes a public option, a government-administered plan “like Medicare” that would be available to all Americans; on drug pricing, the report recommends appointing a government board to set prices that Medicare would pay for new drugs);
  2. The economy (with $400 billion pledged for procurement of domestically made goods and $300 billion to support high-tech research);
  3. Climate change (here, a total of $2.0 trillion over four years is earmarked to shift millions of jobs into clean energy, with the goal of cutting emissions from power generation to zero by 2030, having net zero emissions by 2050, and introducing new fuel-economy standards);
  4. Criminal justice (proposing reforms to law enforcement and policing practices);
  5. Education (including universal preschool for three- and four-year-olds, at a cost of $775 billion over a decade), and 
  6. Immigration (proposing to end travel restrictions against 13 countries, and to maintain protections from deportation for approximately 700,000 young immigrants known as “Dreamers”).

Should Vice President Biden win the White House, financial asset prices in general, as well as specific industries and companies, are likely to be affected by the speed and degree to which the new Administration and Congress (whose degree of support depends on which party controls the House of Representatives and which party controls the Senate) might be able to implement priorities in these and other areas.

For further granularity, the following panel sets forth eight elements of personal taxes and four elements of corporate taxes: (i) under the current U.S. tax regime, which would not currently be expected to change much under President Trump (although the President has endorsed the idea of payroll tax reductions; tweeted about a potential capital gains cut; and vowed to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which capped the so-called SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction at $10,000); and (ii) as currently outlined as taxation policy under a Biden administration.

Given that the process of turning taxation proposals into law takes time, it is likely to be at least June 2021 for new tax legislation to be enacted. On several aspects of tax planning (including the timing and forms of income and expenditures; tax gain-loss harvesting; and retirement, estate, and gifting strategies), it may be sensible to postpone any major moves until a judicious assessment can be made of the makeup of the post-election government and its specifically-expressed legislative agenda.

Regardless of the fireworks, and ultimate outcome, of the election, we will always believe that good, well-run, profitable companies will remain good, well-run, profitable companies, independent of a Trump or Biden win.

What’s Happening at TPW?

Happy to have him aboard, contributing, and part of the Towerpoint Wealth family, the TPW team has been indoctrinating Matt Regan, a.k.a. “the new guy,” over the past two weeks:

Our new Wealth Advisor, Matt Regan, connected with our President, Joseph Eschleman, and our Partner, Wealth Advisor, Jonathan LaTurner, for an enjoyable business lunch at the historic Sutter Club in downtown Sacramento earlier this week.

Our President, Joseph Eschleman, and his wife, Megan Eschleman, hosted Matt and his lovely wife Alyssa for an enjoyable evening of tri-tip, corn on the cob, chicken skewers, and Frank Familycabernet.

TPW Service Highlight – Social Security Optimization

Many investors are not prepared for retirement, and have not properly planned for how to structure their post-retirement income. With the popularity and availability of pension plans quickly waning, and rock bottom interest rates making it difficult to derive enough interest income from bonds, the importance of Social Security has never been greater.

Through careful planning and the development and utilization of a custom Social Security optimization analysis, our aim at Towerpoint Wealth is to help our clients structure a plan to ensure that they are not leaving any money on table when it comes to their Social Security benefits. According to the Annual Statistical Supplement to the Social Security Bulletin, 70% (!) of all retired workers started taking benefits before their normal retirement age. For some this may make sense, but for many, this will result in the forfeiture of tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars over their lifetime.

Let us help you scientifically analyze the myriad of Social Security claiming strategies available to you, and develop a customized plan to ensure you have properly maximized this hugely important retirement income benefit.

Graph of the Week

The market anticipates some pretty incredible fireworks (as we probably all do) leading up to November’s elections. With Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump drifting lower since the late summer, there is now even more expected volatility around Election Day, and things almost assuredly will only heat up further as we get closer to November.

The graph below reflects the historical activity and pricing of the VIX, a popular index that measures future stock market volatility, used by investors to hedge against it. Currently, November’s election is the most expensive event risk on record. With many more absentee and mail-in ballots expected to be cast in this election, the possibility certainly exists that we do not know who the winner is on Wednesday, November 4.

Quoting Cameron Crise, Bloomberg macro strategist, “In the history of VIX futures contracts, we’ve never had an event risk command this sort of premium… That obviously suggests that markets anticipate some pretty incredible fireworks.”

Don’t say you haven’t been warned, keep your seatbelt firmly buckled, and most importantly, don’t be surprised nor overreact to the upcoming craziness!

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Nathan, Raquel, Steve, Joseph, Lori, Jonathan, and Matt

Towerpoint Wealth Team : Sacramento Financial Advisor