TPW Trending Today

As we sit on the eve of 2021’s Memorial Day Weekend, 73% of those in a Quinnipiac poll said their plans are similar to the ones they had pre-pandemic. The light at the end of the pandemic tunnel is getting brighter and brighter by the day!

We’re looking at plunging COVID-19 case and death rates and widening vaccination uptake rates here in the United States, in addition to an uptake in exuberance and economic optimism by investors that has driven the stock market to all time highs. And, as is typically true during periods of market extremes, the talking heads, market strategists, investment gurus, and even your brother-in-law Frank seem to have all the answers as to why this is happening, and what lies around the corner. Our advice to you: Ignore this nonsense, and ignore them all.

Rather than become enamored by these predictions and/or fall prey to a well-articulated story spun by a seemingly well-credentialed “expert,” we encourage you to tune out this noise, and not worry nor think too much or too hard about interest rates, cryptocurrencies, inflation, China, large caps and small caps, mask mandates, or the U.S. deficit. Don’t worry about what the “new normal” means, and don’t get too worked up about “getting your share” of the possible American Jobs Plan or the American Families Plan stimulus packages (we’re purposefully not even linking to any of these themes). Instead, let’s channel our energy and attention into things that we have control over.

While we do believe you should always be ready for the unexpected, we also feel it is way more important to understand and internalize a number of foundational investing and wealth building principles. Ask yourself if you can succinctly and confidently answer the following questions:

• Can I remain objective and rational, and recognize when you are being fearful, greedy, and emotional about your money? Your worst investment enemy is usually found by looking in the mirror. The limbic system is a wonderfully complex set of brain structures that deal with emotions, but activating your fight or flight response in reaction to fear, greed, and anger is not conducive to successful investing or successful longer-term wealth building. 
• Do I understand that my neighbors, friends, and co-workers are perhaps confused and delusional? Not only do they probably spend too much and boast too much about their portfolio, but the chances their financial decisions are rooted in any of the principles listed here are quite low.
• Am I trying to simply make money, or am I working to build and protect my wealth? We equate the former to gambling, and the latter to investing. While anything can happen on a daily, weekly, monthly, and even annual basis, we believe your odds of success increase significantly if you establish and follow a disciplined longer-term wealth building plan.
• What am I doing to proactively insulate my downside from a major catastrophe during a market correction? We believe this is way more important than hitting a home run during a period of market strength. While his two rules are a bit binary, the spirit of Warren Buffett’s quote should resonate:

• Why am I investing, and do I have a plan? For obvious reasons, it is invaluable to not only think through, articulate, and quantify the goals and vision you have for your and your family’s future, but also to have a methodology for how you attend to your personal financial decision-making. And this methodology will be different than your friend’s, neighbor’s, or co-worker’s, as we all obviously have different things that motivate us and that we ultimately want out of life. This is assuming that your friend, neighbor, or co-worker even has a plan at all.
• Do I recognize that costs, fees, expenses, and taxes matter? At Towerpoint Wealth, we call them “necessary evils” to helping clients grow and protect their net worth. And while we can never eliminate the drag that costs, fees, expenses, and taxes creates, we certainly can work to identify, and reduce, these friction points.
• Am I aware that saving money is the single most effective way to build my wealth and to retire? While you need to have balance between saving for tomorrow and living your life today, the capital you spend today is capital no longer available to fund your retirement. Saving money equals peace of mind.

Towerpoint Wealth Turns Four!

On May 26, 2017, with zero clients and $0 in assets under management, we officially launched Towerpoint Wealth. Classified as a “bold,” “risky,” “fearless,” and “courageous” decision by our clients and colleagues, it fortunately turned out to be a prescient and extremely positive one based on the feedback we continue to receive and strategic growth we continue to experience.

Today, we are approaching $350 million in assets under management, and continue to be thrilled to serve YOU, always striving to expand your peace of mind by helping you remove the hassle of properly coordinating your financial affairs.

What’s Happening at TPW?

The Towerpoint Wealth crew recently spent some time in a professional photo shoot with Tim Engle, of Tim Engle Photography – below is one of our favorite shots from the session.

We hold our collective noses to the grindstone at Towerpoint Wealth ~ 97% of the time. However, the culture we have built at the firm is also predicated on spending time outside the office and having fun together as a work family, which is why we regularly schedule fun teambuilding events.

We had an enjoyable “hooky afternoon” earlier this month, pedaling through midtown Sacramento on the Sacramento Brew Bike, with pit stops at Public House Downtown, Kupros, and The Golden Bear. A well-behaved and fun afternoon!

TPW Service Highlight – RETIREMENT – Building wealth

We only semi-jokingly say that you can retire any time you want, but will you be able to with the lifestyle and income stream you desire?

At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe that everyone deserves a secure retirement, and we stand ready to help you with a myriad of retirement-specific tools and planning considerations. The cornerstone of this process is the development of a customized retirement and financial plan using our modeling software from RightCapital(R).

Click HERE to review a sample customized RightCapital financial plan.

Additional retirement-specific services include sustainable and tax-efficient retirement income planning, “black swan” event planning and modeling, customized Social Security benefit election optimization analysis, corporate pension modeling and optimization, fixed/variable/immediate annuity analysis, and optimal-retirement-age projections.

Chart of the Week

Real estate values continue to be on fire! Click HERE to watch an excellent video in which our President, Joseph Eschleman discusses the white hot Sacramento real estate market with long-time Sacramento realtor, Brian Kassis.

And while there is no question about the tremendous price increases homeowners have experienced over the past year and a half, the chart below makes an interesting comparison between the value of the stock market (using the S&P 500 as a proxy) and the value of residential real estate (using the Case Shiller U.S. National Home Price Index as a proxy) over the past 30 years.

Understanding the importance of owning both real estate AND equities when working to build net worth, and recognizing that people seem to be more relational to the increases in the value of their home, the chart below from Visual Capitalist is an eye-opener!

Trending Today

In addition to home prices going up and U.S. COVID numbers going down, a number of trending and notable events have occurred over the past few weeks:

• Will there be a Capitol riot commission? It has been decided today
• Will rising COVID-19 infections in Tokyo cause officials to cancel the 2020 Olympics?
• The Wuhan lab-leak theory is now being taken seriously regarding the origin of COVID-19 – here’s why.
• You think your kid is smart? This two-year-old from Los Angeles is the youngest member of American Mensa, after scoring a 146 on the IQ test
• The cicada plague of 2021 – here is a map identifying exactly where billions of mid-Atlantic cicadas will emerge this spring
• Fed Chair Janet Yellen suggests current higher inflation rates will last for another several months, but will be temporary
• A sold-out Indianapolis Motor Speedway will host 135,000 racing fans on Sunday for the Indianapolis 500

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely unsettled and complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Joseph, Jonathan, Steve, Lori, Nathan, and Michelle

A year ago yesterday, on March 11, 2020, the WHO officially declared COVID-19 to be a global pandemic. Later that night, the NBA pulled the plug on two scheduled games (including the Pelicans/Kings game here in Sacramento), and then immediately suspended its season after Rudy Gobert and Donovan Mitchell both tested positive for the disease:

The battle against coronavirus has unquestionably been a difficult, painful, arduous, and seemingly constant one over the past 12 months, with the underlying question constantly on everyone’s mind: “When will we reopen and get back to normal?” And while we are by no means at the finish line yet, at Towerpoint Wealth we believe we are much closer to the end of the pandemic than we are to the beginning of it.

Why the hope? We will let the visuals support a number of key reasons for our optimism:

Huge declines in COVID-19 cases, deaths, and hospitalizations

Widespread vaccine distribution

Extreme fiscal stimulus

Measured re-opening of the economy

Pending herd immunity

At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe it is also time to look forward, without letting our guard down, with expanding optimism and appreciation for what the future holds. Understanding we will always remain pragmatic, and avoid cockeyed optimism, we do believe that the marathon is almost at its conclusion.

What’s Happening at TPW?

Our lovely Director of Operations, Lori Heppner, along with her Bella. 🙂

Our Partner, Wealth Advisor, Jonathan LaTurner, spent a few days last month in Tulum, Mexico, doing some wedding venue due diligence with his bride-to-be, Katie McDonald. Yes, we’re all very jealous of you two, walking Tulum Beach and both looking great!

TPW Service Highlight – Charitable Giving

It used to be (and still can be) as simple as writing a check and mailing it off to your favorite charity. However, simply giving cash may not be the best, nor the most beneficial or impactful, way to be philanthropic. Fortunately, today’s donors have a myriad of gifting strategies that can increase the economic benefits of their gifts, both for the charity, as well as for you.

From charitable remainder trusts, charitable lead trusts, and private foundations, to donor advised and pooled income funds, and from IRA qualified charitable distributions (QCDs) to charitable gift annuities, there are many options for those who are inclined towards philanthropy. Determining which charitable strategy is best for your personal circumstances can be challenging, and as experts in this field, we stand ready to help you better understand the advantages and disadvantages of each as we develop the most appropriate gifting strategy for you. Click HERE to talk more with us about your philanthropic intent and charitable gifting plan.

Issuance of Amended 2020 Form 1099s – Don’t File Too Early!

Have you received your 2020 Form 1099s in the mail or via email? Have you already received amendments to your original 1099s? Scroll down to read a newly-published report authored by our Director of Tax and Financial Planning, Steve Pitchford, to find out why we recommend NOT actually filing your tax return until early April!

Chart of the Week

It’s not unusual to see -2%, -5%, and even -10% pullbacks in the stock market. Frankly, we should *expect* them to happen, remain objective and not worry about them when they do, and have a plan and the flexibility to make tactical portfolio adjustments to take advantage of them when they occur.

Trending Today

In addition to shots and stocks, a number of trending and notable events have occurred over the past few weeks:

• The $1,900,000,000,000 American Rescue Plan Act of 2021 was signed into law yesterday by President Biden
• President Biden also delivered his first prime-time Presidential speech last night, focusing on COVID-19
• The Duke Blue Devils withdrew from the ACC men’s basketball tournament after a member of the program tested positive COVID-19
• Oprah Winfrey’s prime-time interview of Prince Harry and Meghan, Duchess of Sussex, averages 17.81 million viewers, the second-largest audience for an entertainment program since the 2020 Oscar broadcast
• QB Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys, FINALLY reach a four-year, $160 million contract deal, with $126 million guaranteed
• With the theme of #ChooseToChallenge, International Women’s Day was celebrated on March 8
• California gives OK for Disneyland and other theme parks to reopen April 1st

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Joseph, Jonathan, Steve, Lori, Nathan, Matt, and Michelle

A 2016 survey of 1,000 taxpayers, conducted by WalletHub, found that, if told they never had to pay income taxes again, 27% of respondents would brand themselves with a tattoo that says “IRS” and 11% would gladly drive to Chipotle every single day for three years to clean its toilets. You can’t make this stuff up!

And while there is credible evidence and research that suggests people actually like paying taxes (click HERE to read a Psychology Today article about this “phenomenon”), in our 23+ years helping clients properly build and protect their net worth and wealth, we have yet to encounter a single client, prospect, colleague, or friend who fits this category. While we may intellectually understand why we have to pay them, most of us seem to emotionally detest it.

At Towerpoint Wealth, we recognize (and embrace!) our bias in working with and helping our clients towards achieving the goal of growing and building their assets as intelligently and as efficiently as possible. Understanding there are a myriad of road blocks, speed bumps, and hazards to account for while on this journey, we also recognize and coach our clients to understand that there are two major, and unfortunate, “necessary evils” that stand in the way of accomplishing this goal:

• Fees, costs, and expenses
• Taxes

And while neither of these is completely avoidable, intelligently reducing the drag of either one directly helps your portfolio get better gas mileage. Below are two simple examples to illustrate that point:

To be clear, we have encountered those who let the “tax tail wag the dog” and seemingly focus more on tax avoidance than net-worth building; our preference will always be to help our clients maximize their after-tax wealth, which does pair with having a tax bill every year. However, it also pairs with being directly mindful about keeping your obligation to Uncle Sam to an absolute minimum whenever and wherever possible.

The 2020 tax season is right around the corner, and with it will come some inevitable surprises for those who didn’t properly plan, or who were ignorant of certain aspects of and/or changes to their global 2020 income tax situation. And understanding the interest, dividends, and capital gains that will soon be showing up on your 1099 forms, (all of which report taxable income to the IRS), we encourage you to use the resources found at the bottom of this newsletter to your advantage, and to contact us (click HERE) if you encounter any unwanted 2020 “tax surprises,” or feel you would benefit from a fresh perspective on how to leverage and maximize ideas and opportunities to make your portfolio, and your life, more tax efficient.

What’s Happening at TPW?

Our Wealth Advisor, Matt Regan, working hard as usual from home right now, along with little Mason and Stevie, his loyal friend!

Directly reflecting the firm’s culture, Towerpoint Wealth is a family both inside and outside the office, as our Partner, Wealth Advisor, Jonathan LaTurner, our Client Service Specialist, Michelle Venezia, our President, Joseph Eschleman, and our Director of Tax and Financial Planning, Steve Pitchford all enjoyed a fun day hanging out together and watching Super Bowl LV!

TPW Service Highlight – Tax-Managed Portfolio Management

In addition to investment expenses, income taxes are the second of the two necessary evils we face when helping you grow, and protect, your net worth and assets in the most effective and efficient way. Taxes can severely impact investment returns if not monitored, scrutinized, and controlled. And while we never let the “tax tail wag the dog,” at Towerpoint Wealth we do maintain a specific focus on helping our clients absolutely minimize the tax impact of their investments, portfolio, and overall financial decision-making.

Utilizing low-turnover mutual funds, ETFs, and separately-managed accounts, taxable versus tax-free bonds, strategic tax-loss harvesting, tax diversification, and the asset location strategies discussed in Steve Pitchford’s MoneySavage podcast featured below helps us help our clients significantly reduce the income taxes they pay on their investments.

Issuance of 2020 Charles Schwab 1099s 

A brief but important reminder for our Towerpoint Wealth family of clients: Initial Form 1099 production is based on two different waves at Schwab, with the vast majority (85%+) produced in the second wave:

Chart of the Week

The population exodus from high-tax states like California, New York, and New Jersey is very real, as a migration to other, oftentimes lower-tax states happens when individuals do not feel they are getting enough value for the taxes they are paying.

Federal and state income taxes are unfortunately a necessary evil when working to grow and protect your net worth, but working to manage and minimize your “obligation” to the taxing authorities is one of Towerpoint Wealth’s core competencies. Click HERE to message us and learn more about specific strategies to *reduce* your income tax pain.

Trending Today

In addition to tax drag and Super Bowl schwag, a number of trending and notable events have occurred over the past few weeks:

• A polar vortex is bringing freezing temperatures, freezing rain, snow, and ice this week into much of the US. But what IS a polar vortex?
• An awful and deadly 100-car pileup in Ft. Worth, Texas is a result of icy conditions created by the aforementioned polar vortex
• As the Tampa Bay Buccaneers beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LV this past Sunday, Sarah Thomas made history as the first female to referee a Super Bowl
• House impeachment managers wrapped up their case yesterday for the conviction of Donald Trump for inciting the US capitol riot on January 6
• New York governor Andrew Cuomo’s top aide admits NY hid COVID-19 nursing home deaths to avoid a federal investigation
• Black Renaissance, a new YouTube original special, will showcase Black creators, artists, writers, storytellers, and history makers who have shaped our nation’s history, and the next generation of Black voices who are reimagining our future
• Chinese New Year starts today – 2021 is the Year of the Ox!

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Joseph, Jonathan, Steve, Lori, Nathan, Matt, and Michelle

It seems ridiculous in times like these to write a newsletter about finances and money, but we feel it is our responsibility at Towerpoint Wealth to do so, even if only to provide some respite from politics to our growing family of readers and Trending Today subscribers. We have heard from a few clients that, for a number of good reasons, you already feel like this: 

And while we understand that it has been a tumultuous week, let’s not be too quick to throw in the towel on 2021!

2020 ended with a record close for both the the S&P 500 (3,756.07, representing a +16.3% price gain for the year) and the Dow Jones Industrial Average (30,606.48, representing a +7.2% price gain for the year). So far in 2021, equity prices have continued their upward trend, even with concerns including:

1. The economic implications of the Democratic wins in both Georgia Senate runoff elections and the tumultuous events in our nation’s capital on January 6th
2. The likely trajectory of a resurgent third coronavirus wave
3. Expectations of additional public health-driven economic restrictions and/or lockdowns
4. A deflation of the currently high levels of investor optimism
5. Growing levels of speculative activity in some quarters of the market (high volumes of options trading, a robust IPO calendar, and the popularity of cryptocurrencies)  
6. An interval of market consolidation following such an annus mirabilis as investors have experienced over the past 12 months in the financial markets.

While recognizing the cogency and reality of these concerns, at Towerpoint Wealth we have maintained an essentially constructive view of equity prices, based upon the following factors:

• Continuing monetary stimulus from the Federal Reserve, with ultra-low policy interest rates and $120 billion per month in “Quantitative Easing” money printing, augmented by significant growth in the M-2 money supply, which tends to produce a stimulative environment for consumer prices, GDP, and financial assets (as shown below, over the past year, the U.S. M-2 money supply has increased at +25.2%, the highest rate of growth in four decades!);

• Likely further fiscal stimulus in the form of infrastructure spending and (possibly) more pandemic relief payments; 
• The advent and rollout of vaccines (even though several notable cases of hitches and delays have been experienced thus far); and 
• No second round of recession — with households’ high savings rates and cash balances creating pent-up consumer demand; a robust housing sector; and elevated economic activity in the manufacturing sector

Although we believe stock valuations are elevated and investor optimism is high, equity prices were well aware of and already somewhat discounting the possibility of the outcome of the Georgia Senatorial runoff elections tilting Democratic. Additionally, after a possible short-term pullback/correction, the stock market can continue to move higher, with extra caution and care called for, and perhaps even with some cash raised that can stand ready to be invested on a disciplined basis during a market retrenchment.

Implications of the Georgia Senatorial Elections

In our opinion, assuming no defections from party lines, a Democrat-controlled Senate appears likely to produce:

1. Higher Taxes: Tax increases may not necessarily materialize to the degree that markets may have feared earlier, given that the Senate is likely to feature essentially a 50-50 Democratic-Republican tie — with Vice President-elect Kamala Harris in a position to cast a tie-breaking vote in favor of the Democrats, and with Senator Joseph Manchin III (D, WV) and/or others possibly voting to weaken or reject the tax increases. With some delays and/or dilutions, higher corporate, payroll, income, capital gains, and estate taxes may eventually be on the horizon for many taxpayers (the proposed levies in the Democratic platform amount to $4 trillion, with something in the neighborhood of half that amount deemed likely to be passed). The essential tie in political power in Congress may limit the extent of any changes in tax policy, and an important consideration to be kept in mind is the effective date of any tax increases, including the possible likelihood of retroactivity to January 1st, 2021. 
2. More Spending: With proposed spending increases amounting to $7 trillion stretched out over a decade, the new Administration favors entitlement expansion, healthcare, climate, and green infrastructure initiatives (to accelerate the use of clean energy in the power sector, building construction, and transit); hiking the minimum hourly wage to $15 (which could support household incomes and augment growth in consumption); housing; education; and infrastructure. President-elect Biden has several times expressed support for drug price reforms. 
3. Increased Regulation: Through job appointments, executive action, and legislation where feasible, the Biden administration may favor increased restraints on the financial sector and some portions of the healthcare sector, with continued antitrust and market dominance scrutiny applied toward mega-cap technology and social media companies. Statements by President-elect Biden have indicated that his administration might limit pipeline approvals and curtail drilling activity on federal lands.
4. Spotlight on Relations with the Judiciary: Although we deem such actions unlikely, President-elect Biden may possibly favor certain proposals from within his party to attempt to curtail the Supreme Court’s authority over specific laws by attempting to: (i) impose term limits; (ii) expand the size of the Court; or (iii) through legislative action, divest the Court of its authority over contentious social issues (referred to in academic circles as “jurisdiction stripping”). Any proposed limitation of the Supreme Court’s own powers will very likely spark intense and determined pushback via lawsuits by the Supreme Court as well as by battling parties on either side of the issues involved. 

“Blue Wave” Affected Sectors

Democratic control of the White House, the House of Representatives, and (even if by the narrowest of margins) the Senate (a so-called “blue wave”) could be deemed favorable to large managed-care organizations, renewable energy firms, and the ESG space (companies reflecting and/or supporting Environmental, Social, and Governance initiatives and ideals). Other perceived sectoral beneficiaries of a “blue wave” include, among others: the weakening of the U.S. dollar versus foreign currencies; tax-exempt state and local government municipal bonds; high-yield bonds, small-cap stocks; construction and engineering, manufacturing, materials, industrial machinery, and related firms focusing on the U.S. transportation, maritime, and aviation infrastructure; renewable energy (including wind farms, solar projects, and high-voltage direct current transmission facilities); healthcare equipment and supplies; and cannabis-related companies.

Sectors perceived to be less favorably affected by a slim-margin “blue wave” include: large firms that benefited from the 2017 corporate tax cuts; large-cap pharmaceutical stocks; content liability-protected social network companies (currently shielded by Section 230 of the 1996 Communications Decency Act); dominant technology antitrust targets; the oil and gas sector; tobacco companies; aerospace and defense firms; health insurance companies; student loan servicing companies, asset managers, credit rating firms, and stock exchange operators; precious metals and precious metals mining shares; and labor-intensive enterprises sensitive to minimum wage increases (e.g., retail and grocery companies, restaurant and fast food chains, for-hire ride-sharing companies, and courier and package delivery firms).

What’s Happening at TPW?

Our Director of Research and Analytics, Nathan Billigmeier, and Partner, Wealth Advisor, Jonathan LaTurner, slipped away yesterday to play a round of golf at the #1 public golf course in America, Pebble Beach Golf Links!

Our President, Joseph Eschleman, found a good (albeit chilly) lockdown activity to do with his family last week, watching The Croods: A New Age at the West Wind Drive-In in Sacramento!

TPW Service Highlight – Client Family and Culture

In addition to providing them with the economic peace of mind that comes with the suite of comprehensive wealth management services we provide, as “family members” Towerpoint Wealth clients have also come to expect us to host regular, fun, and unique client appreciation and education events, which we happily deliver on. If you aren’t currently a client, here is what you have been missing out on (!):

• Wealth and Health appreciation and educational dinner and seminar at The Vintage Monkey
• Renewable energy / responsible investing private dinner at The Grange
• Participatory cooking demonstration and family-style dinner at Mulvaney’s B&L
• Test drive a Tesla!

Chart of the Week

As mentioned above, the news yesterday of the Democrats taking control of the Senate led investors to believe that the government will boost fiscal stimulus, which would in theory boost consumption and economic growth, and in turn, inflation.

The chart below compares the relative performance of stocks that benefit from inflation (blue) vs. those that benefit from deflation (black).

Trending Today

In addition to history making and money making, a number of trending and notable events have occurred over the past few weeks:

• Congress considers impeaching President Trump (again), or invoking the 25th Amendment and having him removed from office
• China’s highest-profile entrepreneur and founder of Alibaba, Jack Ma, has not appeared in a public setting since late October, fueling speculation that he’s lying low after the Chinese government responded to his critique of the regulatory system there
• The NFL playoffs begin this weekend, in a season that, amazingly, has been able to be played in full
• New Year’s Eve was very muted this year, as pandemic restrictions limited people’s ability to celebrate, in Times Square and elsewhere around the globe
• New laws went into effect for California on January 1 – do you know what they are?
• Audio emerges that threatens to attack the U.S. Capitol, avenging Iranian General Soleimani’s death one year ago

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Joseph, Jonathan, Steve, Lori, Nathan, Matt, and Michelle

It is normal for the stock market (in this case defined as the S&P 500) to experience intra-year declines. To wit: From the all time highs it set early in 2020, the S&P 500’s deep 34% decline in March.

And while stating that the stock market goes up and down is not at all profound, in this context it has a lot of meaning and important context. Just how common are these intra-year declines?

Put differently:

And while there are still three weeks until we turn the page on 2020 (HOORAY!), the tremendous swing we have experienced since the above-mentioned huge losses in March to the 15.5% gain through yesterday will likely make history as the largest stock market intra-year reversal in history. Did anyone see this coming?

Most of us continue to reel from and deal with a myriad of COVID-19-related challenges, but at Towerpoint Wealth we feel the light of optimism at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter, and anticipate:

• A measured return to a post-pandemic normal by mid-2021, due largely to Pfizer, Moderna, and AstraZeneca’s vaccines that offer up to 95% protection against COVID-19
• With recounts and litigation options virtually exhausted, election uncertainty finally drawing to a close
• The Fed’s unwavering commitment to keeping interest rates extremely low, and being extremely “accommodative” to stimulating economic growth
• The slowly brightening prospect of additional fiscal stimulus from Congress
• A surge in construction and demand for residential real estate
• According to Goldman Sachs, global GDP is expected to grow by 5.3%, and unemployment is expected to decline by 5.3%, in 2021

In summary, while things certainly feel and look bleak right now, there are many reasons for cautious optimism heading into next year. To quote A Wealth of Common Sense:

The stock market can look like a raging lunatic in the short-term but that doesn’t mean you have to invest like a raging lunatic as well.

…not panicking, even when stocks are down big, remains one of the best investment strategies on the planet.

What’s Happening at TPW?

Please help us welcome our new Client Service Specialist, Michelle Venezia! We feel fortunate to add Michelle to our Towerpoint Wealth family, as she brings over 30 years of wealth management industry and operations experience to TPW. Our President, Joseph Eschleman, Director of Operations, Lori Heppner, and Director of Research and Analytics, Nathan Billigmeier, are all keenly aware of Michelle’s skills and experience, having worked side-by-side with her for a number of years at Wells Fargo Advisors.

Michelle is a huge Denver Broncos fan, and enjoys traveling and wine tasting when not spending time at home with her two “fur babies,” Sissy and Mr. Blue. Please call (916-405-9140) or email her (mvenezia@towerpointwealth.com) with any service-related questions or needs, or simply to offer her a warm TPW welcome!

Michelle’s official signing day!

Lori and Michelle, deeply involved in a training session.

Decorating the office for the holidays!

TPW Service Highlight – Cash Management Consulting

Holding cash provides safety, stability, and liquidity / immediate availability (a.k.a. “dry powder“), or in other words, peace of mind. On the other hand, in today’s ultra-low interest rate environment, holding too much cash can be extremely unproductive, as most banks and credit unions are paying next-to-nothing in interest to account holders.

Towerpoint Wealth can help you make intelligent decisions regarding holding and managing your cash balances, working to maximize the interest you are receiving, while aiming to maintain the benefit of the “emergency blanket” that cash provides. In addition to providing clients with customized due diligence on the highest yielding local and national checking, savings, and money market accounts (and CD rates), we also leverage partners such as MaxMyInterest and Reich and Tang, as well as help clients evaluate cash equivalent exchange traded fund (ETF) strategies such as PIMCO’s MINT and First Trust’s FTSM. All of these can potentially put consistent additional interest into your pocket. Reach out to us by clicking HERE to discuss your circumstances further.

Investment return and principal value will fluctuate with most cash equivalent strategies, so fund shares may be worth more or less than their original cost when sold. Past performance is no guarantee of future results, and most cash equivalent strategies are not FDIC insured.

Chart of the Week

Despite the ugly-sounding acronym, FAANG stocks (Facebook, Apple, Amazon, Netflix, Google) have earned significant attention his year – understandable, considering their performance has had a substantial influence on the overall return of the stock market in 2020.

The chart below is a microcosm of this FAANG influence – Apple’s $2.1 trillion market capitalization (a common measure of the size of a company) is more than double the size of the “market cap” of the entire energy sector!  

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Joseph, Jonathan, Steve, Lori, Nathan, Matt, and Michelle

We expected it to be this way, right? Historically, the market has always gotten a bit crazy both before, and after, the election:

Since Election Day on Tuesday, the S&P 500 has rallied 4%, and has enjoyed its best start to the month of November ever, up 7.4% in four days.

At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe there are a few reasons for this big jump:

1. While investors do expect a fiscal stimulus package out of Washington D.C. in the near future, perhaps before January, the size of a deal reached in a divided Congress is likely to be much smaller than it would be under a Democratic-controlled Congress. However, sometimes bad news equals good news on Wall Street, and this had led investors to believe that more pressure will be on the U.S. Federal Reserve (“the Fed”) to pump more funds into the financial system, theoretically supporting stock prices. Just yesterday, Fed Chair Jerome Powell said more stimulus is “absolutely essential” to economic recovery.
2. Assuming Republicans hold the Senate, the likelihood of significant increases in both regulations and income taxes is significantly decreased.
3. Interest rate and inflation expectations have recently dropped:

Additionally, as the Chart of the Week towards the bottom of this newsletter indicates, gridlock has historically been good for the equity markets. And while ballots are still being tallied, and Arizona, Georgia, Nevada, and Pennsylvania remaining in focus, it does appear that Joe Biden is on the brink of victory, and that we are much closer to having a clear winner, possibly by tomorrow or Sunday. The betting markets on the Presidency sure seem to agree:

There are many reasons for us here at Towerpoint Wealth to be paying close attention to events out of our control, but no reason to be reactionary to any of them. In addition to the recent interest rate and inflation-expectation adjustments, some of the other post-election, split-Congress items bearing scrutiny include:

1. Renewed weakness in the financial sector
2. Growth stocks outperforming value stocks
3. Industrial and materials sector stocks lagging
4. The volatility of the U.S. dollar
5. Strengthening emerging market stocks
6. Continued strengthening of technology sector stocks
7. Potential weakness in tax-free municipal bond prices
8. Weakness in healthcare sector stocks
9. Weakness in renewable energy stocks

All of these moving parts and variables can make it tempting to consider second-guessing your investment strategy and philosophy. The constant struggle between the desire for growth and protection is natural, and the goal of managing a well-diversified portfolio is to be prepared for any market environment or political change.

Ultimately, when we put aside all of those “uncontrollables,” we keep the following graph in focus (hopefully the trend is an obvious one):

What’s Happening at TPW?

The Towerpoint Wealth family enjoyed an afternoon of teambuilding and camaraderie on the Sacramento river earlier this week, taking a quick voyage on the Sacramento Brew Boat up and back to the iconic Virgin Sturgeon restaurant for lunch.

While on their adventure, they also helped our newest family member and wealth advisor, Matt Regan, celebrate his birthday!

TPW Service Highlight – Morningstar Portfolio “Instant X-Ray”

Often enough, clients ask us what stocks they have exposure to within the various mutual funds and exchange traded funds (ETFs) that comprise their portfolio. We now have a sophisticated tool available to us that not only does a deep-dive in evaluating your specific asset allocation and sector weightings, but also the actual individual underlying holdings you have exposure to.

Think you are properly diversified? There is only one way to find out for sure – ask us to run a Morningstar portfolio Instant X-Ray report, and we will dissect your portfolio to uncover concentrated positions, areas of unexpected overlap, and provide detailed insights into your portfolio’s diversification, illuminating what is truly driving your portfolio’s risk and performance.

Chart of the Week

The odds right now seem to favor a Biden presidency, a Republican Senate, and a Democrat House. The chart below, from LPL Financial Research, shows how a split Congress has been historically good for the stock market.

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Steve, Jonathan, Lori, Joseph, Raquel, Nathan, and Matt

As of yesterday, more than 17 million people across 44 states and Washington D.C. have already voted. It is projected that a record-setting 150 million people will vote in 2020’s presidential election, representing approximately 65% of eligible voters, which would be the highest rate since 1908! As a country, we are truly rocking the vote this year!

For many voters, considering and sorting through all of the complicated issues can sometimes be a confusing and overwhelming responsibility:

As is typically the case, income taxes rank highly on the list of topics important to voters. According to a mid-September Gallup poll, 61% of voters said that the presidential candidates’ position on income taxes was either an extremely important or very important influence on who they vote for.

Understanding the upcoming election will be pivotal when it comes to tax policy, as well as how divergent the two candidates are regarding virtually every single issue, the dichotomy between Trump and Biden in tax policy and philosophy should come as no surprise. Both candidates have a plan, each with far-reaching consequences, for the following:

• Individual tax rates
• Capital gains and dividends
• Individual tax credits and deductions
• Education tax credits
• Corporate taxes
• Payroll taxes
• Estate taxes

Hungry for more information?

1. A concise “low down” on each candidate’s position on the major tax issues, courtesy of Grant Thornton.
2. For a fresh (filmed just this morning) take from Michael Zezas, Head of U.S. Public Policy Research at Morgan Stanley, on what Biden and Trump’s tax policy proposals mean for investors, the markets, and the election.

What seems to be clear is that who wins in November could very well spell the difference between cementing the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017 as a permanentshift in U.S. tax policy, or instead, reversing major portions of this three-year-old legislation in favor of more progressive tax policies.

Either way, let’s not forget that there almost assuredly will be a substantial difference between what is promised on the campaign trail and what actually passes into law!

What’s Happening at TPW?

Lori and Raquel. On Tuesday. Together. With Bob Ross (on the right)! That’s all. 

Our President, Joseph Eschleman (and his wife, Megan Eschleman), and our Partner, Wealth Advisor, Jonathan LaTurner (and his fiancée, Katie McDonald), escaped to Oregon to do some wine tasting in the Willamette Valley this past weekend!

TPW Service Highlight – Tax Minimization Planning

Keeping with the theme of today’s newsletter, we at Towerpoint Wealth believe our energy is best spent helping our clients plan for things we have some control over, while being aware of, but not reactionary to, things we do not. And while paying taxes is as exacting and constant today as it was the day Benjamin Franklin penned his famous Death and Taxes quote in 1789, that doesn’t mean it can’t be planned around and minimized.

We are fortunate to have two team members who are licensed CPAs here at TPW, our Director of Tax and Financial Planning, Steve Pitchford, and our new Wealth Advisor, Matt Regan. Fortunately for us (and our clients!), both Steve and Matt are extremely well-versed and experienced in helping TPW clients reduce the income tax “drag” on their net worth and investments, specifically monitoring and focusing on the following areas:

• Tax efficient investing
• Tax loss harvesting
• Tax legislation updates and changes
• Asset/investment account drawdown
• Account withdrawal tax optimization
• Charitable trust planning
• Charitable giving planning and analysis
• Income tax credit and deduction analysis
• Direct coordination and planning with your CPA/tax advisor
• Tax return analysis

Graph of the Week

Will it be a landslide, or will it be close? Will it be contested, or will it go smoothly? Reply to this email and let us know what you think!

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Steve, Jonathan, Lori, Joseph, Raquel, Nathan, and Matt

$27 trillion. That is where the United States’ current debt load currently stands as of 10:40 a.m. today:

The budget deficit is expected to be $3.3 trillion just for 2020, as the Federal government seeks to provide stimulus to our economy in the face of the COVID-19 crisis. This has added $2 trillion to our national debt, on which in most months we are spending more than $1 billion a day just in interest. 

For perspective, here is a sobering infographic (yes, that is a football field in front of the Statue of Liberty) depicting what $20 trillion looks like. Each pallet, or “brick,” represents $100 million:

Infographic courtesy of www.demoncracy.info

Unless there is some new economic or societal model that none of us are aware of, our country’s debt will almost assuredly never be paid back. Politicians love promising us the world, and when the cash is not there to keep their promises, our government borrows money. Paying back this debt would require making extremely difficult decisions, and concurrently, losing votes. It is much easier to avoid this problem, kick the can down the road, and borrow from our children’s future than responsibly address it.

The politicians’ solution? Inflate our way out of the problem. The path of least resistance is to manufacture (read: print more) money to pay the debt back. By doing so, we are able to meet and satisfy our debt obligations (at least on paper). However, what this means is the holders of U.S. debt will receive back less than they loan in real dollars, as the purchasing power of a dollar declines as inflation occurs.

Most economists agree with and are untroubled by such massive amounts of borrowing, understanding our economy is currently in peril. The national debt was barely a concern when we passed the CARES Act, a cornerstone $2.2 trillion coronavirus economic stimulus bill, almost unanimously in March.

The two major concerns about carrying such a major debt load (higher interest rates and higher inflation) have not yet come to pass, as interest rates are extremely low and inflation remains quite muted. And because of that, our government is able to focus on providing the above-mentioned stimulus to combat the COVID-19 pandemic, and not have our national debt constrain our response. Seeing that we have been “forced” to borrow aggressively, at least we have been able to do so quite cheaply!

Make no mistake about it, questions remain about what the actual impact of this aggressive borrowing and economic stimulus will be. At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe the politics will eventually have to switch towards reining in the deficit. As this occurs, expect potentially massive implications for government spending, focused in areas like pension and medical spending, especially as our economy and our citizens age.

However, while we do feel there may be a transition to and an increased focus on debt reduction here in the United States at some point, the way we see it for the foreseeable future:

1. The U.S. economic engine will remain a powerful one
2. The urgency of the COVID-19 crisis will continue to underscore the demand for “safe haven” assets like U.S. Treasurys 
3. The U.S. dollar will remain the world’s reserve currency
4. The U.S. Federal Reserve will continue to print vast amounts of money to buy our debt
5. Once business start to reopen and growth returns to more “normal” levels, tax revenues will increase substantially.

What’s Happening at TPW?

It was great to have a Towerpoint Wealth quorum downtown yesterday, with everyone looking good and dressed nicely to boot!

She said yes!

Our Partner, Wealth Manager, Jonathan LaTurner, *finally* popped the question to his long-time partner, Katie McDonald, while at Carmel by the Sea this past weekend.

A huge congratulations to both Jon and Katie, we can’t wait for your wedding!

TPW Service Highlight – Concentrated Stock Management

Have you amassed personal wealth through equity-based compensation, the inheritance of a large single-stock position, or from receiving stock as part of the sale of a closely-held business? Does this stock represent more than 10 or 15% of your overall portfolio? Do you recognize and are you concerned about the risk that this position may represent to your overall net worth? If the stock has appreciated, are you worried about the potential income and capital gains tax consequences of selling it?

We are experts in helping our clients manage and mitigate the risk and tax consequences of owning a concentrated stock position – click HERE or scroll to the bottom of this newsletter to download the white paper we recently published on this very important issue.

Graph of the Week

Researchers around the world are working around the clock to find a vaccine against COVID-19. In addition to a number of individual companies, the pandemic has created a number of unprecedented public/private partnerships in search of promising vaccine candidates:

• BioNTech / Pfizer
• Oxford / AstraZeneca
• GSK / Sanofi
• Novavax
• Gamaleya Research Institute of Epidemiology and Microbiology
• Moderna
• Sinovac
• Janssen
• Valneva
• CureVac

Below you will find a chart that outlines these current major partnerships and companies, as well as geographic distribution of the anticipated vaccine.

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Nathan, Raquel, Steve, Joseph, Lori, Jonathan, and Matt

For a myriad of reasons, 2020 has been both a surreal and unreal year, and the growth in the value of residential real estate is illustrative of that. According to USA Today and the National Association of Realtors (NAR), despite the hard economic times caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, home prices rose in the first quarter of 2020 in 96% of U.S. metro markets. A few of the local Sacramento-area agents we work with have commented that “this [real estate] market is even hotter and crazier than it was at its peak in 2006.“

The environment 14 years ago was very different – during the U.S. housing bubble, real estate prices were artificially inflated due to speculative fervor, lax lending standards, and arguably negligent regulations. But when we fast forward to 2020, we find four reasons for this red hot market:

Historically LOW interest rates. Money is extremely “cheap” right now, as interest rates on mortgages continue to hit record lows.

Cheap money is analogous to low interest rates, meaning it doesn’t “cost” much to borrow. Mortgage rate cuts have given house hunters ~ 25% more buying power in less than two years, and that does not appear to be ending soon. The less it costs to borrow, the more a buyer may be inclined to do so when buying a home. Alternatively, the less it costs to borrow, the lower the homebuyer’s monthly mortgage payment. Adding this all up provides major stimulus to and demand for buying real estate.

Urban exodus. Just a few years ago, demand for city living was high, and people were piling into major metropolitan areas throughout the United States; now, the opposite is happening, and they are filing out in favor of suburban life.

Rent decreases are accelerating, as seven of the top ten priciest rental markets saw apartment prices drop 5% over the same time last year. Cultural and social opportunities that often draw people to metropolitan areas have largely shut down due to coronavirus. The perceived health concerns associated with public transportation and dense city living, high city taxes, the safety concerns and stress caused by demonstrations devolving into riots and other increases in crime, the desire for more space, and the ability to work remotely have all created a huge outflux from the cities, and concurrently, an influx of cash that has pushed up real estate prices in the ‘burbs.

Telecommuting / virtual working. Before COVID-19, only about 5% of workers did their jobs remotely. That figure has jumped to nearly half. Google, Twitter, and Facebook have led Silicon Valley in announcing plans to let, or even require, employees to work from home, at least for the next year, if not indefinitely. New York-based financial giants J.P. Morgan and Morgan Stanley have offered their employees a similar option. Telecommuting is no longer a trend, it is a full-blown movement. And that has allowed, or better put, freed people to live where they desire, and not feel geographically-tethered to their job location.

Inventory shortage. There is an imbalance. There are more buyers than sellers. Postponed purchases from March and April due to home-buying restrictions have created intense demand. Families are looking to upgrade, and, understanding we are all spending more time in our homes that before, people simply want more space. There was a nationwide industry shortage even before the pandemic hit, and the COVID-19 crisis has only exacerbated the problem. U.S. home values grew to $256,663 in August, an 0.7% increase from July, the largest increase since 2013, and inventory is 29.4% lower than a year ago! Builders are racing to catch up with demand, and rising prices should encourage more potential sellers to come off of the sidelines and list. But until those things occur, the shortage of inventory will continue to tilt the housing market in favor of sellers. Economics 101: When demand outstrips supply, prices go up.

How long this lasts remains to be seen. At Towerpoint Wealth, we believe that things will only begin to change in the real estate market when the uncertainty surrounding the job market, economy, and COVID-19 epidemic begin to subside.

What’s Happening at TPW?

The TPW crew enjoyed a “robust” teambuilding potluck earlier this week, highlighted by grass fed tri-tip marinated in “The Sauce for All Seasons,” Pearson’s Premium!

Our Partner, Wealth Manager, Jonathan LaTurner, our Director of Research and Analytics, Nathan Billigmeier, our new Wealth Advisor, Matt Regan, and our Director of Tax and Financial Planning, Steve Pitchford, enjoyed an early morning TPW team-building golf outing at William Land Golf Course!

TPW Service Highlight – Roth IRA conversions

While 2020 will rightfully be remembered for the challenging and unprecedented COVID-19 battle we have all been impacted by, at Towerpoint Wealth, we have continued to proactively work with clients to identify economic opportunities presented by the coronavirus crisis. Specifically, we have identified a “silver economic lining” tax planning strategy this year, one that is designed to take advantage of today’s low income tax rates, which we feel are temporary, while at the same time leave our clients better positioned for tomorrow’s higher income tax rates, which we feel are inevitable.

Below you will find 2020: The Perfect Year for a Roth Conversion, our newly-published white paper that discusses what a “Roth conversion” is, who may benefit from a Roth conversion, why 2020 is a potentially great year to do a Roth conversion, and how to utilize important tax planning tools to evaluate this opportunity.

Graph of the Week

While we obviously need to continue to remain disciplined, and understanding there is still more work to be done, the United States COVID-19 hospitalization numbers below, from Bespoke Investment Group, are encouraging. Less than one person per 10,000 population (or less than 100 people per 1MM population) is currently hospitalized with coronavirus.

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Nathan, Raquel, Steve, Joseph, Lori, Jonathan, and Matt

It’s right around the corner, and it isn’t going to be pretty, so let’s discuss the election’s impact on the stock market now and get it out of the way.

For a good part of this calendar year, we have counseled you that it is prudent to give advance thought to the range of potential economic, regulatory, taxation, spending, budget deficit, societal, and financial market implications of the national election results, depending on whether Republicans or Democrats win one or more of the White House, the House of Representatives, and the Senate. 

After Labor Day, the campaign is likely to reflect increased amounts of political vociferousness, perhaps some degree of vehemence, and even apportionments of vitriol (we hope and pray not too much), with the potential to cause meaningful shorter-term shifts in financial asset prices. That is precisely why we recommend forming beforehand, and sticking to, a well-reasoned and disciplined asset allocation plan and investment strategy tailored to your personal and financial circumstances, time horizon, objectives, and temperament.

November 2020: The 59th Quadrennial Presidential Election

September, October, and then, the Election: With the VIX volatility index (see the Graph of the Week below) having risen an average of four points ahead of each of the last seven presidential elections since this measure was created, important issues to consider in the upcoming weeks ahead include:

• How clearly (and energetically) each political party’s convention message was received, perceived by, and responded to by their respective loyal voter bases;
• The nation’s reactions to the anticipated three presidential debates and one vice presidential debate;
• Assessments of the strength of party identification among various segments of the voting population, as well as in the composition of the overall electorate; at the same time, taking into account the ability of each ticket to generate serious backing from less-supportive voter populations; 
• Which candidate voters (considering demographic attributes, where they live, how they classify themselves on the political spectrum, and other characteristics) think can better confront America’s broad challenges, including the coronavirus pandemic, the economy, social issues, and pressing global concerns;  
• The effectiveness of voting procedures, trust in mail-in balloting, the degree of putative social media and foreign-based election interference, actual voter participation, and the perceived veracity and legitimacy of the results; and 
• The potential consequences of prolonged uncertainty associated with a contested election (should it occur) for social order and the financial markets.

Some Implications of Potential Scenarios

Roughly one in five workers are currently receiving jobless benefits, and early expectations of a V-shaped recovery have been hindered by renewed coronavirus outbreaks. Regardless of who wins the 2020 election and in what manner, financial asset valuations appear to be reflecting expectations that whenever the coronavirus pandemic ends, some degree of economic acceleration is likely to take place in the U.S.

As we have counseled for some time, it is important to devote thought and attention to the taxation, regulatory, economic, asset allocation, and investment strategy implications of the three leading potential electoral outcomes outlined below (while noting that both political parties have expressed interest in promoting the development of generic drugs, lowering drug prices, and containing healthcare costs; and the two parties have also been focusing on antitrust, platform liability, and privacy issues relating to many of America’s biggest technology enterprises):

1. If President Trump is re-elected and wins the White House, Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans keep control of the Senate, such an outcome would likely favor securities in the following sectors: technology, defense, finance, healthcare, and energy, while potentially putting pressure on sectors and companies that could be harmed by further deterioration in  U.S-China relations;
2. If Vice President Biden wins the White House, Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives, and Republicans keep control of the Senate, such an outcome would likely favor companies and sectors that would be deemed to have thereby avoided increased taxes and a heavier regulatory burden;
3. If Vice President Biden wins the White House, Democrats keep control of the House of Representatives, and Democrats take control of the Senate(sometimes referred to in the media as a “blue wave”), such results would substantially raise the odds of higher taxes. Offsets to the latter outcome could come in the form of substantial additional spending on infrastructure, education, and healthcare. Securities in the following sectors, among others, are perceived to be disadvantaged by a “blue wave” Democratic sweep: defense, healthcare, financials (via increased regulation) and energy (with expectations of restricting fracking and limiting drilling on federal lands in Texas/New Mexico’s Delaware Basin and Southeast Montana/Northeast Wyoming’s Powder River Basin), while giving a lift to sectors and companies that could be helped by improving U.S-China relations.

The Pre- and Post-Election Tax and Spending Outlook

As shown in the panel below, the current taxation and spending policy positions of Vice President Biden contain numerous base-broadening elements that increase taxes by approximately $4 trillion, while increasing spending to the tune of approximately $6 trillion in areas including healthcare, infrastructure, education, energy research, and other initiatives.

Released on Wednesday, July 9, the 110-page report of the Unity Task Forces (created and staffed by individuals designated by Vice President Joe Biden and Senator Bernie Sanders) contains a detailed set of policy recommendations in six domestic policy areas: 

1. Health care (while not supporting Medicare for All, the report proposes a public option, a government-administered plan “like Medicare” that would be available to all Americans; on drug pricing, the report recommends appointing a government board to set prices that Medicare would pay for new drugs);
2. The economy (with $400 billion pledged for procurement of domestically made goods and $300 billion to support high-tech research);
3. Climate change (here, a total of $2.0 trillion over four years is earmarked to shift millions of jobs into clean energy, with the goal of cutting emissions from power generation to zero by 2030, having net zero emissions by 2050, and introducing new fuel-economy standards);
4. Criminal justice (proposing reforms to law enforcement and policing practices);
5. Education (including universal preschool for three- and four-year-olds, at a cost of $775 billion over a decade), and 
6. Immigration (proposing to end travel restrictions against 13 countries, and to maintain protections from deportation for approximately 700,000 young immigrants known as “Dreamers”).

Should Vice President Biden win the White House, financial asset prices in general, as well as specific industries and companies, are likely to be affected by the speed and degree to which the new Administration and Congress (whose degree of support depends on which party controls the House of Representatives and which party controls the Senate) might be able to implement priorities in these and other areas.

For further granularity, the following panel sets forth eight elements of personal taxes and four elements of corporate taxes: (i) under the current U.S. tax regime, which would not currently be expected to change much under President Trump (although the President has endorsed the idea of payroll tax reductions; tweeted about a potential capital gains cut; and vowed to extend the Tax Cuts and Jobs Act of 2017, which capped the so-called SALT (State and Local Tax) deduction at $10,000); and (ii) as currently outlined as taxation policy under a Biden administration.

Given that the process of turning taxation proposals into law takes time, it is likely to be at least June 2021 for new tax legislation to be enacted. On several aspects of tax planning (including the timing and forms of income and expenditures; tax gain-loss harvesting; and retirement, estate, and gifting strategies), it may be sensible to postpone any major moves until a judicious assessment can be made of the makeup of the post-election government and its specifically-expressed legislative agenda.

Regardless of the fireworks, and ultimate outcome, of the election, we will always believe that good, well-run, profitable companies will remain good, well-run, profitable companies, independent of a Trump or Biden win.

What’s Happening at TPW?

Happy to have him aboard, contributing, and part of the Towerpoint Wealth family, the TPW team has been indoctrinating Matt Regan a.k.a. “the new guy,” over the past two weeks:

Our new Wealth Advisor, Matt Regan, connected with our President, Joseph Eschleman, and our Partner, Wealth Advisor, Jonathan LaTurner, for an enjoyable business lunch at the historic Sutter Club in downtown Sacramento earlier this week.

Our President, Joseph Eschleman, and his wife, Megan Eschleman, hosted Matt and his lovely wife Alyssa for an enjoyable evening of tri-tip, corn on the cob, chicken skewers, and Frank Familycabernet.

TPW Service Highlight – Social Security Optimization

Many investors are not prepared for retirement, and have not properly planned for how to structure their post-retirement income. With the popularity and availability of pension plans quickly waning, and rock bottom interest rates making it difficult to derive enough interest income from bonds, the importance of Social Security has never been greater.

Through careful planning and the development and utilization of a custom Social Security optimization analysis, our aim at Towerpoint Wealth is to help our clients structure a plan to ensure that they are not leaving any money on table when it comes to their Social Security benefits. According to the Annual Statistical Supplement to the Social Security Bulletin, 70% (!) of all retired workers started taking benefits before their normal retirement age. For some this may make sense, but for many, this will result in the forfeiture of tens, if not hundreds of thousands of dollars over their lifetime.

Let us help you scientifically analyze the myriad of Social Security claiming strategies available to you, and develop a customized plan to ensure you have properly maximized this hugely important retirement income benefit.

Graph of the Week

The market anticipates some pretty incredible fireworks (as we probably all do) leading up to November’s elections. With Joe Biden’s lead over President Trump drifting lower since the late summer, there is now even more expected volatility around Election Day, and things almost assuredly will only heat up further as we get closer to November.

The graph below reflects the historical activity and pricing of the VIX, a popular index that measures future stock market volatility, used by investors to hedge against it. Currently, November’s election is the most expensive event risk on record. With many more absentee and mail-in ballots expected to be cast in this election, the possibility certainly exists that we do not know who the winner is on Wednesday, November 4.

Quoting Cameron Crise, Bloomberg macro strategist, “In the history of VIX futures contracts, we’ve never had an event risk command this sort of premium… That obviously suggests that markets anticipate some pretty incredible fireworks.”

Don’t say you haven’t been warned, keep your seatbelt firmly buckled, and most importantly, don’t be surprised nor overreact to the upcoming craziness!

As always, we sincerely value our relationships and partnerships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. We encourage you to reach out to us at any time (916-405-9140, info@towerpointwealth.com) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place, and we are here to help you properly plan for and make sense of it.

– Nathan, Raquel, Steve, Joseph, Lori, Jonathan, and Matt