Room to Run – There’s Plenty in ’20!
Senescence – the process or condition of deterioration with age.
While logical and sensible when it comes to biology, it is extremely important to understand that senescence is completely irrelevant to economies and to the stock market. Economic expansions do not die from old age, they die from negative shocks. Or put more bluntly by Former Fed Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke, “they get murdered,” usually by central banks like our Federal Reserve tightening the money supply and raising interest rates.
As we head into the new year and as is always the case, there are indicators supporting both sides of the “Will the U.S. economic expansion continue?” question. On the positive: Jobs have increased for 110 straight months (!), wages at every level are growing faster than inflation, and real manufacturing output is at all-time highs. On the negative: GDP growth has slowed to +1.9%; the U.S. Treasury yield curve recently inverted (oftentimes a recessionary precursor), and the uncertainty created by U.S. trade disputes and tariffs.
Independent of these pros and cons, at Towerpoint Wealth we feel the most salient economic point heading into 2020 is that many analysts and investors continue to cling to the flawed thinking that expansions have to come to an end because of old age alone. Instead, we encourage you to let other people’s fears be your friend,know that senescence is nonsense when it comes to the economy, and invest with confidence knowing that monetary policy remains very loose and accommodative, both here in the U.S. and globally. Put differently:
TPW Celebrates the Holidays!The TPW family had a blast last week celebrating the holiday season together, first with a round of mini golf at Flatstick Pub, and then at a festive dinner at Echo & Rigin Sacramento’s new Downtown Commons (DOCO)!
We all feel very fortunate in the culture we have created here at Towerpoint Wealth, as not only our TPW team members, but also our valued clients, appreciate the care and the sincerity we put into our work – and also when we let our hair down a little and have fun together!
Mutual Fund Expenses – Not Fake News
Credit to Carl Edwards at the Behavior Gap.
In addition to holiday fun and the inevitability of human (but not economic) aging, a number of trending and notable events occurred over the past few weeks:
- The sixth of 12 Democratic primary debates scheduled for the 2020 U.S. presidential election took place at Loyola Marymount University
- McConnell, Pelosi dig in on impasse over President Trump’s post-impeachment Senate trial
- Star Wars: The Rise of Skywalker released in theaters, brings in $373 million worldwide in the first weekend
- Despite facing several criminal charges, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu is one step closer to re-election in Israel
- Shock-jock Don Imus, dead at 79
- NFL playoffs set to begin; San Francisco 49ers a #1 seed
- Pro-Iranian demonstrators attack U.S. embassy in Iraq after earlier airstrikes on Hezbollah-controlled facilities
Also, we wish you a Happy New Year! We sincerely value our relationships with each of you, as well as your trust and confidence in us here at Towerpoint Wealth. Here’s to a happy, healthy, and prosperous beginning to the Roaring ’20’s – a decade of opportunity and potential!
Lastly and as always, we encourage you to reach out to us (firstname.lastname@example.org) with any questions, concerns, or needs you may have. The world continues to be an extremely complicated place. We are here for you, and look forward to connecting with, helping, and being a direct, fully independent, and objective expert financial resource for you.